🚨 AGGRESSIVE VERSION — TEXT ONLY, ONLY THE REAL 🚨

🔥 The narrative exists, but it is NOT an infallible law. Let's break it down.

⸻

1️⃣ Is the Bank of Japan raising rates on December 19?

👉 Yes.

The market takes for granted a rate hike. Japan is exiting ultra-cheap money after decades. That is real and it is an important macro event.

⸻

2️⃣ Has Bitcoin fallen other times when the BoJ raises rates?

👉 Yes, it has happened.

In recent BoJ adjustment events, Bitcoin experienced sharp declines in the weeks around the announcement. That is an observed pattern, not made up.

BUT ⛔ correlation is NOT causation.

In those same periods there were also:

• global liquidity adjustments

• Fed movements

• deleveraging

• macro risk selling

It wasn't “just Japan”.

⸻

3️⃣ The story of “this signal never fails” is FALSE

❌ There is no macro signal that “never fails”.

❌ There is no economic rule that forces Bitcoin to fall every time Japan raises rates.

❌ Saying that “it always happens” is fear marketing, not analysis.

What is true:

• The yen carry trade decreases when Japan raises rates

• That can generate sales in risk assets, including BTC

• Especially if there is excessive leverage

⸻

4️⃣ Can Bitcoin fall to US$70,000?

👉 It is possible, but NOT mandatory.

A 20–30% drop:

• is viable in a volatility context

• is not guaranteed

• and the market may have already priced it in

Many times:

• the market falls before the announcement

• and rebounds afterward (“sell the rumor, buy the news”)

⸻

5️⃣ The hard truth

✅ The BoJ event is real

✅ It can generate volatility

✅ It can pressure Bitcoin downwards

❌ It does not guarantee a crash

❌ It does not guarantee a specific price

❌ It is not a magic signal that “never fails”