📣 Today, December 18, 2025, the official interest rate of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is at 0.50%. The BOJ raised it to this level in January of this year and has kept it stable since then. Right now, the bank is in the middle of a monetary policy meeting (which started yesterday and ends tomorrow, the 19th). All analysts, economists, and reliable sources (Reuters, Bloomberg, Nippon.com, etc.) expect that tomorrow they will announce an increase of 0.25 points, bringing it to 0.75%, which would be the highest level in 30 years.
✅ Inflation continues to be above the 2% target, wages are rising, and Governor Ueda has already given strong signals that he is moving forward. If they confirm this tomorrow (which looks likely), it would already be 0.75% from the 19th. But strictly today, it is still 0.50%.
💰 With the expected interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan tomorrow (December 19), from 0.50% to 0.75% (very high probability, like 98% in markets), Bitcoin could have a tough moment in the short term. Why is this happening, beautiful? The main issue is the yen carry trade: for years, investors (including institutions) borrowed cheap yen (almost at zero) to buy risk assets like Bitcoin, tech stocks, etc.
⭐ As interest rates rise in Japan, borrowing yen becomes more expensive, the yen strengthens, and many people unwind those positions: they sell BTC to repay loans. This creates strong selling pressure and volatility. History repeats itself (and it's scary):
• March 2024: increase → BTC fell ~23-27%
• July 2024: increase → ~25-30%
• January 2025: increase → ~30-31%
💣 Analysts say that if the pattern repeats, from the current ~87k USD, it could dump to 70k or even lower (60k in pessimistic scenarios), with massive liquidations.
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