Cryptocurrency Long-Term Trend Analysis: The Inducement to Buy Has Not Stopped, It's Too Early to Bottom-Fish

1. The current market rally is all an inducement to buy; the drop and rebound after Japan's interest rate hike are no exception. It is too early to talk about bottom-fishing before real panic selling occurs.

2. BTC rebounding from 80600 to 94550 is a complete fluctuation zone, with multiple failed attempts to break through 94000 - 95000. After falling below 87700, the trend reversed, and the current fluctuation in the 84000 - 89000 range is just a delay.

3. The selling pressure this time comes from spot selling, with continuous outflows from ETFs and Wall Street reducing positions being obvious. The contract rally cannot change the downward trend, and the long-term price equilibrium point is likely to shift down to the 65000 - 72000 range.

4. The ETH monthly adjustment has not ended; the 30-day moving average has just formed a death cross, which will welcome at least a month of bearish environment; the weekly KDJ death cross and the monthly MACD death cross approaching the zero axis are the prelude to accelerated decline.

5. Long-term bottom-fishing for ETH should only focus on the 2000 - 2150 range; all previous operations were just tests and need to dynamically respond to market rhythms.