MANY EXPERTS HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT THE RELIABILITY OF THE LATEST CPI REPORT
The CPI inflation report for November in the U.S. just released is causing significant controversy in the market. The CPI number of 2.7% and Core CPI of 2.6% are considerably lower than the around 3% level that many organizations previously forecasted, raising questions about the quality of the data.
The main reason stems from the report being released late due to the U.S. government shutdown, while the October data was canceled, forcing the statistical agency to use alternative estimation models. This increases the risk of bias, especially in sensitive components.
The most concerning point is housing inflation, specifically the rent index. Some areas are reported to have recorded a zero increase during the October–November period, which does not accurately reflect the current real estate market conditions. If this segment is overly “flattened,” the overall CPI will appear significantly lower.
Therefore, many experts warn that inflation could rebound in the coming months as data is fully collected and normalized. This means that expectations for an early interest rate cut may be overly optimistic according to market evaluations.