Recently, I came across a particularly interesting viewpoint that completely overturned my traditional understanding of Bitcoin's "four-year cycle".

Many people believe that Bitcoin's major bull market every four years is due to the "halving"—the speed of new coin production is halved, supply decreases, and prices naturally rise. This story sounds perfect and indeed aligns with the peak points in 2013, 2017, and 2021.

However, some macroeconomic experts (like Raoul Pal) have suggested that the halving is merely a coincidence, and the real driving force behind it is the "refinancing cycle" of global public debt.

In simple terms, it means that debts owed by various governments mature, and they must issue new bonds to repay old debts. To smoothly roll over debt, central banks often lower interest rates, inject liquidity, and print money, resulting in a large influx of liquidity into the market. At this time, with too much money and nowhere to go, it rushes into high-risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies, causing Bitcoin's price to naturally rise.

After the peak of the bull market, liquidity tightens, interest rate hikes begin, and funds retreat, leading Bitcoin into a prolonged bear market. When the next wave of debt maturity arrives, central banks once again inject liquidity, and the cycle restarts.

Interestingly, this peak period of debt refinancing occurs roughly every 4-5 years, coinciding with the halving period, which is why everyone mistakenly believes that the halving drives the market.

Looking back now: 2013 corresponds to QE3, 2017 corresponds to the Federal Reserve's easing, 2021 corresponds to the massive stimulus during the pandemic... all of them can be matched up.

This suddenly made me realize that Bitcoin may never have been an asset "independent of traditional finance"; it is actually the most sensitive "barometer" to global debt expansion and currency depreciation.

The traditional four-year cycle may be evolving into a "liquidity cycle"; in the future, when looking at Bitcoin, we may need to pay more attention to the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, government bond yields, and global debt maturity walls, rather than just focusing on the next halving.

The world is becoming more complex but also more interesting~