Let’s reorganize and analyze the prediction market! Go big!! Attached is CZ's Q&A about the prediction market.
1: First, let’s talk about two major events:
1: Binance has heavily invested in three prediction market platforms: Opinion (the leader), predict (with token airdrops), probable (the prince).
2: Coinbase confirmed on the 17th to launch a prediction market, collaborating with Kalshi, the current second-largest prediction platform, to build and jointly launch it.
2: What are the prediction market platforms?
Currently, there are three major players in the prediction market: Polymarker, Opinion, and Kalshi. I recommended a while back that the prediction market would become very popular, especially with a bear market next year and the World Cup starting, which will ignite the prediction market trend. How can we ordinary people seize this wave? That is the most important thing! So participate in the points program now and reap the benefits!
The largest polymarket.com is said to have already taken snapshots? But there's no points system, still needs some brushing; I have already brushed into the top 1% ranking.
The three platforms on the BNB chain are key because they are likely to be listed on Binance; Opinion has been launched for over a month now, and currently, the trading volume is surpassing that of Polymarket; I'm currently ranked 1122, aiming to get into the top 1000, and have made a profit of $1600, trying to maintain that ranking.
https://app.opinion.trade?code=Pz2l4V
Predict (with a points airdrop) was created by former Binance employees, recommended by CZ; to quickly gather popularity, it gives airdrop points to those who have traded on the BNB chain and other prediction platforms, but you need to complete tasks and brush transaction volumes to unlock, the strategy is very deep; I suggest just taking the points offered by the platform and withdrawing. https://predict.fun?ref=89403
Probable, a project launched in collaboration with Cake by Binance, has been retweeted by Binance's official account; currently, there is no points system, the prediction targets and depth are lacking, but currently trading will also count towards the points system; right now, it's not competitive, you can participate early, but the lack of depth means only small funds can participate. Probable.markets
3. Kalshi, with a strong background, but I haven't brushed it; this time collaborating with Coinbase to launch the prediction program on the Coinbase platform.
In summary: Polymarket has the best depth, the most targets, allowing for some funds to hedge against other platforms, with a focus on Binance's three major platforms, especially Opinion, which I am most optimistic about; specific strategies can be found in my pinned article!
Appendix: CZ's Q&A about prediction markets in AMA
Someone asked, you guys at Binance have invested in several prediction markets (like Probable), are you trying to create a "horse race" to see who comes out on top?
CZ denied and provided a very clear framework: it's not a horse race, it's an "open garden."
"There are multiple e-commerce platforms and multiple search engines on the internet, would you call that a horse race? That's just how the market operates naturally."
YZ Labs' principle: Never make exclusive investments. Especially in the early stages of a project, as long as the team is strong, we support them.
Why invest in multiple early projects?
CZ's logic:
1. Competition expands the pie. Different teams try different directions, serving users in different regions.
2. Verify which features users really want. For example, Probable's "locking funds while earning interest"; if users like it, others will copy it; if no one cares, it won't be copied.
3. A strong team can also fail. A good product does not guarantee project success; various reasons can cause problems, so it's better to bet on several.
How does he judge early projects?
"I look at the product, but actually I judge whether the team can deliver by looking at the product."
Today's features are not important; what's important is if the demand changes tomorrow, can they respond quickly and iterate rapidly.
CZ believes the next battleground node: World Cup
Polymarket exploded during the US elections (more accurate than polls); CZ said the industry is now watching the 2026 World Cup.
"Which team works sleeplessly, at least in the short term will win."
But he also said: The real victory or defeat is long-term, seeing who can persist, who has execution power, and who is mission-driven.
