To be honest, the trend of Pepe Coin during this period can be described in one sentence—going down all the way, with almost no resistance.
Since peaking in May this year, Pepe has been in a continuous decline. This week's market situation is even worse, with prices continuing to 'free fall', and this time, even the whales can't hold on anymore.
Where has the price fallen to?
Pepe recently dropped to 0.000003745 USD, a new low since October 10, and has retracted nearly 78% from this year's peak in May.
And the more troublesome thing is—that the decline has not shown obvious signs of braking.
What are the whales doing? The answer is not very good.
On-chain data shows that in the past few days, whales have started to reduce their holdings of Pepe.
Currently, the whales hold about 45.1 trillion Pepe, which has decreased from the highs earlier this month.
In the context of continuously weakening prices, this behavior usually signals one of two things: either reallocation or capitulation.
Smart money is also withdrawing.
Not just whales, so-called 'savvy investors' are also reducing positions.
November positions: about 211000000000.
Now: about 209000000000.
This part of the capital is known for 'taking profits and running'; reducing positions usually isn't a good signal.
There are more and more Pepe in the exchanges.
Another bearish signal is — Pepe is continuously flowing into exchanges.
The total amount of Pepe in the exchanges has now risen to 2.6581 trillion, clearly higher than the previous low.
This usually means one thing: there are more people ready to sell than those ready to hold.
The contract market is also not cooperating.
Meanwhile, the open interest in Pepe's futures contracts continues to decline, and the funding rate has been in a neutral position for a long time.
Simply put:
Those who go long are lacking confidence.
Short selling is not aggressive.
Liquidity is slowly drying up.
This is not friendly for a rebound.
How do the technicals look?
From the daily chart, Pepe has entered a very standard downtrend since the May high of $0.00001667:
Prices are always pressed below all moving averages.
Parabolic SAR clearly points to bearish.
Momentum indicators and long-short strength indicators have both fallen below zero.
In summary: the technicals are completely on the bear side.
Where might it drop next?
If we extrapolate based on the current trend,
the more conservative target is at $0.000002816 (October low).
This means — relative to the current price, there is about 30% downward space left.
Of course, if Pepe can strongly break through the 50-day moving average and stabilize, the aforementioned bearish logic will be broken.
In summary:
Prices continue to hit new lows.
Whales and smart money are simultaneously reducing positions.
Exchange supply is rising.
Technicals are completely bearish.
👉 Pepe now looks more like it's 'finding a bottom' rather than preparing to reverse.
The risk of short-term bottom fishing is not small.
