Each major supercycle of HISTORY, overlaid on a single chart.
The AI cycle is only 45 months long.
This is NOTHING.
Here’s what the $SPY data says:
1. The post-war period lasted 200 months and returned +594%
2. The 1920s lasted 97 months and returned +505%
3. The rise from 1982 to 2000 lasted 211 months and returned +1,391%
4. The post-GFC period lasted 160 months and returned +497%
The AI cycle:
+89% in 45 months.
Based on historical data, we’re barely past the STARTING LINE compared to each prior supercycle.
The shortest in history (the Roaring Twenties) still lasted 4 YEARS from where we are now.
The longest (1982 to 2000) still lasted 14 years.
But here’s the part nobody talks about:
Each of these cycles ENDED with a crash.
• The 1920s fell by 89%.
• The internet bubble fell by 49%.
• COVID fell by 34%.
Stay net long. Stay patient. The best years of this cycle are still AHEAD of us.
The AI cycle is only 45 months long.
This is NOTHING.
Here’s what the $SPY data says:
1. The post-war period lasted 200 months and returned +594%
2. The 1920s lasted 97 months and returned +505%
3. The rise from 1982 to 2000 lasted 211 months and returned +1,391%
4. The post-GFC period lasted 160 months and returned +497%
The AI cycle:
+89% in 45 months.
Based on historical data, we’re barely past the STARTING LINE compared to each prior supercycle.
The shortest in history (the Roaring Twenties) still lasted 4 YEARS from where we are now.
The longest (1982 to 2000) still lasted 14 years.
But here’s the part nobody talks about:
Each of these cycles ENDED with a crash.
• The 1920s fell by 89%.
• The internet bubble fell by 49%.
• COVID fell by 34%.
Stay net long. Stay patient. The best years of this cycle are still AHEAD of us.