2025.12.19 Anna analyzes last night's "ADP" data, which was exceptionally strong and caused a brief market surge, but then accelerated into a sharp decline in the early hours.
There are two core logic points:
First, the market suspects that the employment data is inflated, overly exaggerating the actual economic heat, making it difficult to sustain;
Second, global liquidity is tightening. This afternoon at 2 PM, the Bank of Japan is expected to announce an interest rate hike, marking a historic turning point. The market has already reacted to this expectation, with funds withdrawing from risk assets.
This indicates that the current rebound is a trap to lure buyers, rather than a reversal. Bitcoin and Ethereum have not yet reached their true bottom, and blindly bottom-fishing poses significant risks. The strategy for this week remains unchanged: continue to short on rallies, patiently waiting for a rebound to key resistance levels (such as the Ethereum $2900-3000 area) before positioning for shorts, which is a safer strategy.
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