Crypto friends, I am Zhao Gongming. $BTC Is today’s market making your heart race? Don’t panic, follow Zhao Gongming, and let’s see through the main players' strategies together. Today, let’s break it down and discuss: After a surge, is it a trap or a pie?
First, let's look at the news: Why did the bad news actually lead to a rise?
The biggest news today is that the Bank of Japan raised interest rates, reaching a 30-year high. Normally, tighter liquidity should lead to a drop in risk assets. But the market actually rose — this is essentially playing the trick of 'bad news being fully priced in is good news.' Because the suspense of the interest rate hike has been resolved, the biggest uncertainty in the short term is gone. Coupled with the decent U.S. CPI data last night, it provided the market with an emotional outlet. But remember, raising interest rates ultimately means tightening liquidity, which is not a good thing in the long run. Today's rise is an emotional rebound, not a trend reversal.
Looking at the technical aspect: the key position is here
From the 1-hour chart, the overall downtrend has not changed, but there has been a short-term resistance. The current key position is very clear:
Upper ceiling: 88000 (key resistance), 89990 (strong resistance, challenging to rebound here)
Lower floor: 85000 (first support), 83800 (second support)
Interestingly, the technical indicators chart gave a 'strong buy' signal, and the MACD formed a golden cross below the zero axis. This is like a person falling down, trying to support themselves with their hands to get up — it’s an attempt at a rebound, but not yet stable enough to run up.
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What are the main funds doing?
Looking at the capital flow chart, you will find the tricks: in a short period, the funds are jumping up and down, indicating that retail investors and short-term traders are in fierce competition; but when the time frame is extended to 4 hours or 8 hours, you will find that the main funds are actually quietly net inflowing. What does this mean? Large funds are using declines and fluctuations to quietly accumulate positions; they are not in a hurry to immediately push the price up.
Zhao Gongming's perspective and operational advice:
Zhao Gongming's view is clear, bearish, primarily short on rallies! From the current market perspective, the probability of directly breaking through 88000 or instantly falling below 85000 is low. For friends in different situations, the suggestions are as follows:
Positioning advice: It is advisable to hold on for now, but do not add to positions. Focus on observing the attack and defense situation at the two key points of 88000 and 85000. It is better to stay put than to move around chaotically until the direction is clear.
Recommendation for staying on the sidelines: It is advisable to adopt a 'range approach'. Consider lightly positioning some long orders in the range of 85500-86000; in the range of 87800-88800, consider lightly positioning some short orders. Remember, it’s all light positioning, just testing the waters.
Key action points: If the price firmly stands above 88000, consider following up on long orders after a pullback; if it breaks below 85000 with increased volume, caution is needed for further declines.
The market is always specialized in treating various grievances. Before the trend is completely clear, protecting your principal is more important than anything else. If you feel that tracking the market alone is too exhausting and you can’t find the right rhythm, feel free to follow Zhao Gongming. I will share more detailed point reminders and analysis of main movements in the chat room. After all, in this market, following the right person is key to finding the right path.#比特币流动性 #巨鲸动向
