S&P 500 Index: High-Range Fluctuations in 2025, Intensified Bull-Bear Struggle in 2026
The S&P 500 (SPX), as a broad-based index covering 70% of the total market capitalization of U.S. stocks, is a core barometer of the global financial market, showing a high-range fluctuation pattern in 2025. As of December 17, the index closed at 6721.43 points, although it has retreated from recent highs, it still maintained a historical high range throughout the year, breaking the 6800-point mark multiple times in the first 11 months, reflecting the resilience of the U.S. economy and market liquidity support.
Its component stock structure is highly representative, with the information technology sector accounting for 27.5%. The top three constituent stocks, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple, collectively account for 20.2%, with the AI industry layout of tech giants becoming the core driving force of the index. The index is compiled using a market capitalization weighting method, and the index committee has discretionary power to adjust the constituent stocks based on industry changes and corporate dynamics, ensuring an accurate reflection of the U.S. stock market.
In 2026, market divergences are significant. UBS optimistically predicts the index will climb to 7700 points, with the core logic being the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the AI investment boom, and an expected 10% growth in corporate earnings. However, Stifel has issued a warning, pointing out that the current index valuation is at a historical high, with stock risk premiums close to those during the internet bubble period. If an economic recession (probability 25%) occurs, there could be a 20% pullback.
As a long-term stable-performing index, the S&P 500 has an annualized return rate of about 9% over the past 50 years, with 78% of the years achieving positive returns. The current market is in a balancing period between the benefits of policy easing and the risks of recession, with the concentrated weighting characteristics dominated by the technology sector amplifying growth potential and increasing volatility sensitivity. Its subsequent trends will continue to dominate global asset allocation direction.
