Family, the market monitoring interface at three in the morning is more thrilling than a horror movie! Just now, it exploded in the circle, a top whale holding over 68 million AST, after moving around in 15 dispersed wallets for nearly 8 hours, finally couldn't hold on and made the first sell order. This scene is reminiscent of a heavily loaded cargo ship running aground on a sandbank, the ship is already tilted, and the people on the deck are still torn between jumping into the sea to survive or waiting for the tide to rise, while I'm watching the on-chain data, my palms are sweating.
First, let me share the core data: Last night, this wave had about 4.68 million AST sold at a price of $0.71, cashing out $3.34 million. At first glance, the numbers seem impressive? But if you look closely, this is less than 7% of his total holdings, and I found his entry records, with an average cost as high as $1.66! Just this transaction alone resulted in a direct loss of nearly $4.5 million. It's equivalent to a regular person's lifetime savings being gone in the blink of an eye.
What’s even more hair-raising is that this is just an appetizer. He still holds 63.22 million AST, which is approximately $45.52 million at the current market price, with overall floating losses already exceeding $64 million. This is not a graceful exit at all; it is completely a "pressure release" forced to the wall, like a balloon blown to its limit—if it doesn’t let out a small hole to release pressure, it will explode directly.
As someone who has monitored on-chain data for 5 years, I must bring out several details from this incident for everyone to analyze; they are all genuine lessons learned.
1. This is not a "malicious dump," but a "lifesaving sale."
Many people see a dump and curse "dog dealers cutting leeks," but this time it is truly different. If they really wanted to clear their positions and run, they could easily engage in off-market block trades or break it down into hundreds of small orders to sell gradually, rather than directly smashing the price below the market value, causing the market to be completely wrecked. I judge that this is likely external pressure forcing them to act, either because collateral lending is nearing the liquidation line—if they don’t sell, they will face forced liquidation and incur even greater losses—or they are facing a funding liquidity crisis, urgently needing to cash out for survival. In short, this is survival, not malice.
2. The operation of "15 wallets" exposes the "anxiety pre-positioning" of large holders.
Some may not understand why chips are scattered across 15 wallets. In fact, this is a routine operation for large holders in the circle, either to avoid platform risk control or because they fear being targeted due to concentrated positions. However, this also shows that this whale has long anticipated potential risks in the market and prepared for a diversified holding in advance, looking for opportunities to leave quietly. Unfortunately, the market did not give him this chance. During periods of low sentiment, no matter how deep you hide, as soon as you move your chips, the on-chain data will be exposed immediately, making it extremely difficult to exit smoothly. This also serves as a reminder for us: if large holders are already anxious in advance, ordinary people should not be blindly optimistic.
3. The "trap" of liquidity: circulating market value is all "paper wealth."
This point is the most crucial takeaway, and everyone must remember: circulating market value ≠ exit market value. I checked AST's recent trading data, and the average daily trading volume often falls below $10 million. The chips in this whale's hands are equivalent to the total daily trading volume over 4-5 days. Want to exit completely? It's simply impossible. No matter how valuable the coins you hold are, if no one takes them, they are just a bunch of numbers. Especially when the market sentiment is low, liquidity becomes more precious than water. Even whales can be trapped in a "liquidity trap," just like an elephant stuck in a mud pit; no matter how strong it is, it cannot get out.
Here's a humorous interlude to lighten the tense atmosphere: last night while monitoring the data, a scene suddenly appeared in my mind. This whale originally wanted to swim towards financial freedom with AST but failed to notice the tidal changes and got stuck on the shallow beach after the tide receded. Now, every move is accompanied by the sound of "whooshing" money loss. This isn't weight loss; it's clearly like being bare-chested while cutting meat! I felt sorry for him for three seconds; the rest is all a warning.
After discussing the analysis, let me highlight three insights for ordinary people that can help you avoid 90% of the pitfalls:
First, don't blindly follow the "whale" operations. Many people see large holders' positions and follow suit, thinking, "They must know better than I do." But this case proves that large holders' operations may not necessarily be based on informational advantages; they may also be passive actions forced by circumstances. Just because they lose more does not mean your bottom-fishing is safer; it could very well mean becoming a "bag holder."
Secondly, beware of the chain reaction of "high-cost positions." When the average cost of large holders is far higher than the current price, every small rebound in the market may become an opportunity for them to reduce their positions. This continuous selling pressure makes it very difficult for the market to recover and may even trigger a chain dump. In such situations, don't think about bottom-fishing; it's better to observe first.
Third, engrain "liquidity" into your investment DNA. When assessing a project, don’t just look at how high the market value is or how popular the concept is; first ask yourself, "If I want to sell, can I sell smoothly?" Those projects with low average daily trading volume and chips concentrated in the hands of a few people, no matter how enticing, should be avoided; otherwise, it may be very easy to get in but very hard to get out.
To be honest, this "whale fall" is not over yet. Whether this whale will continue to dump or whether the market can hold up is uncertain. But for us ordinary people, there is no need to guess daily where the bottom is; what’s more important is to learn from others' lessons and armor your own investments.
The market has never lacked stories of "whales cutting meat" and "project collapse," but what is lacking are those who can remain clear-headed and withdraw in time amid these stories. I will continue to monitor the movements of this whale on the chain, and I will update everyone as soon as there are new developments. Do you think after this wave of dumping, AST will continue to hit new lows or will it rebound? Let's discuss your views in the comments.
