Family! First, let me admit a mistake to my long-time followers regarding the wave structure of ETH; I indeed misjudged it before! But don't scroll away, this revised judgment might actually be more promising than my previous analysis, and the bullish logic is even stronger now! If you're still torn about whether ETH will continue to pull back or start to rally, this article will clarify the underlying logic for you, and at the end, I have my real-time tracking commitment—don't miss out or you’ll regret it!
Long-time followers know that I was previously very bullish on ETH, but there was a small twist in the middle: I misjudged that segment of the red wave b as a 'charge' of a downtrend, which is to say an impulsive wave C or wave 1. At that time, I was even pondering that a new round of decline was coming, and I even warned my friends to be cautious. Looking back now, it was purely for my own dramatization!
Why do I say I was wrong before? A careful review will reveal that the structure of that wave was not regular at all, completely inconsistent with the core characteristics of an impulse wave. Impulse waves require 'clear rhythm and coherent strength', while this segment of price action was all over the place, more like 'dragging things out'. It wasn't until the recent downward pressure completely dissipated that ETH's price action finally revealed its true nature; it was like 'the darkness before dawn'!
Here comes the important stuff, remember it well! ETH first precisely tested a strong resistance level, and after not breaking it, it directly formed a standard triangular consolidation pattern, which is what I previously misidentified as the 'red wave b'! More crucially, this wave b retraced nearly 80% of wave a, which is quite significant and directly maximizes the probability of an 'expanded flat correction'. Those in the know are aware that after an expanded flat correction, the subsequent impulse wave often has considerable strength, which is also one of the core reasons I remain bullish.
If this scenario can be realized, the second target for ETH is directly locked in the 3900-4000 range! This number is not just something I pulled out of thin air; there are three strong supports: First, this range itself is a historically significant strong resistance area, which will turn into strong support after being broken, making it reasonable to set the target here; Second, I overlapped the butterfly pattern and harmonic pattern for verification, and both classic patterns point to this range, effectively providing double insurance for the target; Third, this perfectly aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the main wave 1, creating a resonance effect in technical analysis.
Of course, I can't just paint a rosy picture; risk warnings must be in place. Although my bullish logic is very strong, we must also be alert to another possibility: ETH might have already completed the correction and could turn around to continue moving downwards. This is not alarmism; the crypto market is inherently volatile, and no technical analysis is 100% accurate. Therefore, I've been closely monitoring the market, setting this key point as an alert so that I can detect any price irregularities at the first moment.
To be honest, what I fear most in crypto analysis is being stubborn and not admitting mistakes; the market is always right, and we can only adjust our rhythm according to it. After judging this correction, my confidence in being bullish on ETH has actually increased, as eliminating the incorrect logic leaves us with a direction that is closer to the truth.
Lastly, let me tell you something: I will update the price dynamics and pattern changes of ETH in the comments section every day, keeping track of the 3900-4000 target in real-time. If you find this analysis useful, don’t forget to follow!
