Whenever the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, global markets start to get nervous: will the yen carry trades collapse? Will global liquidity tighten? However, after reading the governor's speech, one can feel a significant sense of relief; this rate hike is not a signal of "全面收水" but rather an action to "stabilize expectations."
The governor repeatedly emphasized that "this is not a shift to tightening, but rather a normalization of the pace," with the core purpose being to reassure the market. It is important to note that Japan, as a major global capital exporter, has its monetary policy shifts significantly affecting global capital flows. If the market misjudges this as "aggressive tightening," it could likely trigger concentrated unwinding of carry trades and chaotic capital flows, as seen when Japan's interest rate hike in July 2024 led to a brief flash crash in the U.S. stock market.
This time, the clear positioning of 'non-tightening' is to avoid such panic fluctuations. From the perspective of the actual policy intensity, a 25 basis point rate hike is not significant, and it is clearly stated that there will be no entry into an aggressive cycle. Essentially, it is finding a balance between 'extreme easing' and 'excessive tightening'. For the global market, this is not the activation of a 'liquidity sucker', but rather the Bank of Japan guiding the market to gradually adapt to a normalized monetary policy environment, which is more beneficial for global financial stability in the long run.@男神说币 #比特币流动性 $BTC
