On the global cryptocurrency market chessboard, Binance is undoubtedly the leader. However, for the most important financial market in the world—the United States—this exchange giant has always harbored a complex emotion. Since exiting the U.S. market in 2019 and serving local users through the independent entity Binance.US, Binance's 'American dream' has been filled with twists and turns. Now, with the shift in political winds and a series of strategic adjustments emerging, Binance's blueprint for returning to the U.S. seems to be redrawn, while its founder Zhao Changpeng (CZ)'s personal aura and shareholding unexpectedly become the core variables and potential 'shackles' in this grand return drama.
"The CZ Dilemma"
The turning point of the story occurred in October 2025 when U.S. President Donald Trump pardoned Zhao Changpeng, not only granting freedom to this crypto leader mired in legal troubles but also bringing a dramatic turnaround to the relationship between Binance and the U.S. market. After his release, CZ quickly returned to the public eye, boldly declaring that he would 'do everything possible to make the U.S. the capital of cryptocurrency and promote the development of Web3 globally.' This statement was undoubtedly interpreted by the market as Binance sounding the horn for its return to the U.S.
However, this 'key' opened by the presidential pardon is also a double-edged sword. According to Bloomberg and several media outlets citing informed sources, although CZ is legally prohibited from participating in any formal or informal operations of Binance, his identity as the controlling shareholder of Binance.US has become a 'major obstacle' for the company in expanding its business in the U.S., especially when seeking critical operating licenses in various states. In the eyes of regulators, CZ's enormous personal influence and past violations have led them to approach the approval of Binance.US's operational applications with caution and even resistance.
To break this deadlock, Binance is evaluating a series of plans to revitalize its U.S. business. Among them, the most notable is the capital restructuring of Binance.US, which aims to dilute or even completely buy out Zhao Changpeng's majority stake through the introduction of new capital or buybacks. This move aims to fundamentally change the equity structure of Binance.US and send a clear signal to regulators: the company is thoroughly cutting ties with past risks and seeking market access with a new, more compliant posture.
In addition to considering an 'anti-CZ' equity adjustment internally, Binance's external strategy appears to be particularly proactive and precise, targeting the core circles of American finance and politics.
On one hand, Binance is striving to deepen its cooperation with Wall Street giant BlackRock. As the world's largest asset management company, BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF is the largest of its kind in the U.S. market. Binance announced last month that it would accept BlackRock's tokenized money market fund BUIDL as collateral for over-the-counter trading. Informed sources say discussions between the two parties extend beyond this, involving the development of new products and potential revenue sharing, among other deeper financial collaborations. Establishing close ties with traditional financial giants like BlackRock not only provides Binance with strong liquidity and product support but also serves as important backing for its brand legitimacy.
On the other hand, Binance is also actively building its political network. It is reported that Binance is seeking to establish closer ties with World Liberty Financial (WLFI), a crypto venture capital firm associated with members of the Trump family. Against the backdrop of the Trump administration's unprecedented friendly attitude towards the crypto industry, this move is undoubtedly Binance's attempt to leverage political resources to pave the way for its return to the U.S. market.
Invisible influence
While forming alliances externally, the internal power structure of Binance has also quietly changed. Recently, Binance co-founder and CZ's partner Yi He has been appointed as co-CEO, sharing leadership with current CEO Richard Teng.
Yi He's promotion is seen as a complex signal. On one hand, she became the face of the company during CZ's imprisonment, leading strategic direction, and her appointment symbolizes stability and continuity for the company. On the other hand, her close relationship with CZ raises questions about whether this is another way for CZ to maintain his influence, blurring the lines between Binance and CZ. This makes the power balance between Richard Teng, who has a strong regulatory background and is responsible for communicating with global regulators after the crisis, and Yi He subtle.
Interestingly, CZ's personal influence is so great that it has even given rise to a unique market phenomenon. A prediction market called 'Predict.fun' launched a 'CZ Mention Market' before CZ's BNB Chain AMA event on December 18 (UTC+4 16:30). Users can bet on whether CZ will mention 'BNB' more than five times or 'Builder' more than three times during the livestream. Data shows that as high as 94% of participants bet that he would mention 'BNB' multiple times.
This seemingly entertaining event has precisely quantified CZ's 'halo effect.' Even though he no longer holds an official position, his every word and action remains the focus and source of confidence for the entire ecosystem. This also indirectly confirms the regulators' concerns: how can a founder with such enormous personal appeal effectively isolate themselves from the business empire they created?
The road ahead is long.
Although Binance's return strategy seems ambitious, the reality is that the road is much more rugged than imagined. The current state of Binance.US is concerning, with its market share plummeting from a peak of 35% to nearly zero, and operating licenses in more than a dozen states and regions, including Alaska, Florida, and New York, have been revoked or never approved.
Lee Reiners, a financial law scholar at Duke University, points out that Binance.US faces 'a huge challenge' in regaining money transfer licenses in various states, especially those governed by the Democratic Party. Regulators in these states have reasonable doubts about Binance's historical record and are unlikely to be easily swayed by its overtures. Additionally, Trump's pardon of CZ has sparked strong backlash from senior Democratic lawmakers like Elizabeth Warren and Maxine Waters, who have accused it of being 'corruption' and 'pay-to-play,' indicating that Binance's path to return will face ongoing political resistance.
Although the industry once hoped for a market structure bill under consideration in Congress, which could establish a unified federal licensing system to circumvent the complex regulatory barriers of various states, the bill has become stalled due to bipartisan political differences, making its short-term passage uncertain.
In summary, Binance's strategy for returning to the U.S. market is a carefully planned, multifaceted, and complex game. It must undergo painful 'self-revolution,' considering weakening the founder's core equity; cleverly utilize the new political climate to ally with financial and political forces; and also cope with internal power dynamics and the founder's lingering significant influence.
Zhao Changpeng's personal brand was once the biggest driving force behind Binance's rise, but it may now become the largest obstacle to its development in the U.S. Whether Binance can successfully stage a 'return of the king' depends on whether it can convince U.S. regulators that it has truly turned over a new leaf. In the coming months, the final decision on CZ's equity and substantive progress in cooperation with partners like BlackRock will be key indicators for assessing the direction of this return saga. For Binance, the door to the U.S. market has reopened a crack, but the road behind it is still fraught with thorns.
