Major positive news! The US November CPI has hit a 4-year low, is a rate cut really coming in January?

Just now, a macroeconomic data point sufficient to ignite the market has been released: the US November unadjusted CPI year-on-year has dropped to 2.7%, not only lower than expected but also marking a new low in nearly 4 years.

The significance of this number is extraordinary. It indicates that the inflation indicator most closely watched by the Federal Reserve is approaching its 2% target at an unexpectedly rapid pace. Combined with the unemployment rate data released a few days ago, which also hit a 4-year high, a “perfect” reason for a rate cut seems to be laid out: inflation continues to cool, and the job market is softening.

How will the market interpret this? Traders' reactions may be very direct: this greatly clears the obstacles for the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate cut cycle, and the market's expectations for a rate cut in January 2026 will heat up sharply. For risk assets like cryptocurrencies, which are extremely sensitive to liquidity, this is undoubtedly the strongest signal that “water is coming.”

However, there is also a thought-provoking question. After the data was released, some viewpoints pointed out that this data reflecting the situation in November coincidentally covers the chaotic period of the US government shutdown in October. Therefore, the accuracy of the data may have “technical distortions.” This adds a rational footnote to the frenzy: are markets trading on solid fundamentals, or are they dealing with a data illusion shaped by the “shutdown effect”?

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While the entire market's sentiment is swayed by a percentage figure (2.7%) excitedly calculating when the liquidity gates will open, another kind of “value creation” that is completely unaffected by CPI or unemployment rates is steadily operating at its own pace.

This is exactly what the community represented by @Max Charity , which has been forwarded by CZ, practices. Regardless of whether CPI is 2.7% or 3.7%, their focus remains unchanged: continuously investing resources and efforts into the establishment and promotion of global Giggle Academy classrooms #Max .

Their “inflation” target is to reduce the scarcity of educational resources, and their “employment rate” is to provide more children with learning opportunities. While the financial world revels or feels anxious over minor fluctuations in data, this long-term commitment to solving real-world problems demonstrates another kind of certainty. Perhaps it reminds us that while paying attention to macro “easing,” those actions that are “storing water” for the world are equally worthy of attention.