一转眼就长大
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Singapore can't sit still!
On December 18, Hainan will close its borders, which is the fundamental reason why Singapore can no longer sit still!
Singapore's good days are supported by the Malacca Strait. This waterway, no wider than 37 kilometers, serves as the most attractive "toll booth"; transshipment trade alone supports half of its GDP. However, with Hainan closing its borders, the sign of this "toll booth" is directly shaken.
When the Indonesian cargo ship "Sumatra" first bypassed Singapore to sail directly to Hainan's Yangpu Port, Singapore's Prime Minister Lawrence Wong urgently called for "China and Japan to let go of historical burdens," revealing the deep anxiety of the head of this "Asian toll booth."
Singapore's prosperity is built on the geographical monopoly of the Malacca Strait. 37% of global maritime trade and 50% of crude oil transportation must pass through this 37-kilometer-wide waterway, and Singapore has constructed the world's busiest transshipment port system based on this.
Data from 2024 shows that the container throughput managed by the Port of Singapore Authority reached 38 million TEUs, of which 70% are transshipment goods between Southeast Asia and East Asia.
This "shipping economy" has allowed Singapore to earn triple revenue from transshipment fees, ship fueling fees, and financial settlement fees, with 22.3% of GDP coming from wholesale trade.
However, this model has a fatal flaw: profits are paper-thin. A cargo ship transporting palm oil from Indonesia to China needs to pay a 12% transshipment fee when passing through Singapore, while Hainan's border closure directly implements a "30% value-added processing tax exemption" policy.
After the Golden Agri-Resources Group built a factory at Yangpu Port, processing costs dropped by 18%, saving $120 million each year. Even more alarming for Singapore is that the direct shipping line from Yangpu Port to Jakarta shortens the travel time by 5 days, and cargo damage rates drop from 8% to 3%.
The policy dividends released by Hainan's border closure can be described as a precise strike: tax scissors difference: corporate income tax cut from 25% to 15%, and the highest personal income tax rate cut from 45% to 15%, 5 percentage points lower than Singapore. The owner of a 300,000-ton oil tanker can save 240,000 yuan on a single refueling.
Value-added processing traps: Southeast Asian raw materials processed in Hainan and sold to the mainland are exempt from tariffs, directly cutting into the core profits of Singapore's transshipment trade. Thai rubber is directly transported to Hainan via the China-Laos railway, and after being processed into tires, is fully exempt from tariffs, saving 12% compared to transshipment via Singapore.
This downward strike is rewriting the rules of the game. When Hainan uses the "domestic customs outside" system to attract companies to produce locally, Singapore's "toll fee" model becomes an inefficient "toll booth."
In response to the impact, Singapore has launched two major self-rescue plans: green shipping hub: investing 3 billion Singapore dollars to renovate the docks and promote hydrogen fuel supply stations. In July 2025, the world's first hydrogen-powered cargo ship "Singapore" will conduct trial navigation, claiming a 50% reduction in carbon emissions.
Digital trade barriers: launching the "Starlink Port" system to achieve paperless documentation through blockchain technology. However, reality is harsh — in the third quarter of 2025, 63% of Southeast Asian enterprises still give up using it due to system compatibility issues.
These efforts have yielded little effect. The fundamental contradiction lies in: Singapore's land area limits the space for industrial upgrading. Yangpu Port has a 120 square kilometer bonded area, capable of simultaneously accommodating 200 300,000-ton cargo ships, while Singapore's Jurong Port has a maximum capacity of only 30 ships.
Hainan's border closure marks the entry of the global shipping pattern into the "dual-core drive" stage: Singapore continues to control high-end services: 6.8% of global foreign exchange transactions are still concentrated here, and the number of multinational regional headquarters is three times that of Hainan.
Hainan is creating a complete industrial chain: relying on a market of 1.4 billion people, Hainan is forming a "processing-research and development-sales" closed loop. By 2025, Hainan's new energy vehicle production will exceed 500,000 units, with 70% of components coming from Southeast Asia.
This division of labor is reconstructing the profit chain. When Malaysian palm oil companies choose to build factories in Hainan, Singapore's warehousing revenue decreases by 15%; when Vietnamese coffee beans are rerouted through Yangpu Port, Singapore's futures trading volume drops by 12%.
In the 1990s, Dubai rose through free trade zone policies, with Dubai Port's container throughput soaring from 3 million TEUs in 1995 to 21 million TEUs in 2025.
Singapore's response strategy is worth pondering: on one hand, cooperating with Dubai to open a "Middle East-Southeast Asia" express line, and on the other hand, secretly suppressing UAE shipping companies.
History may repeat itself. The competition between Hainan and Singapore is essentially a collision between "policy innovation" and "traditional advantages." When Hainan attracts the industrial chain with "value-added processing" and cultivates the domestic demand market with "tax-exempt consumption," Singapore's "toll booth" model is doomed to be unsustainable.
Behind Hainan's border closure is the covert battle between China and the United States in the South China Sea. The Chinese Navy's "Fujian" aircraft carrier conducts regular patrols to ensure the safety of shipping routes from Yangpu Port to Europe. Data from 2025 shows that the accident rate of merchant ships in the South China Sea has dropped to 0.02%, equivalent to that of the Malacca Strait.
Singapore's anxiety lies in: if China completely controls the South China Sea shipping routes, the strategic value of the Malacca Strait will plummet. This concern has driven Singapore to accelerate its alignment with the United States, with joint military exercises increasing by 40% year-on-year in 2025.
Standing on the observation deck of Yangpu Port, looking out at the South China Sea, the silhouette of a 10,000-ton giant ship cutting through the morning mist contrasts eerily with the American reconnaissance aircraft on the horizon. Hainan's border closure is not meant to replace Singapore, but to prove that in this era where efficiency reigns, any business model that relies on geographical advantages may be overturned.
As China breaks the monopoly with institutional innovation and companies replace transshipment trade with industrial chain integration, Singapore's "golden age" will inevitably come to an end.
There are no losers in this transformation — Southeast Asian countries benefit from lower logistics costs, China unlocks its domestic demand market, while Singapore needs to consider: where should the next "toll booth" be built?
On December 18, Hainan will close its borders, which is the fundamental reason why Singapore can no longer sit still!
Singapore's good days are supported by the Malacca Strait. This waterway, no wider than 37 kilometers, serves as the most attractive "toll booth"; transshipment trade alone supports half of its GDP. However, with Hainan closing its borders, the sign of this "toll booth" is directly shaken.
When the Indonesian cargo ship "Sumatra" first bypassed Singapore to sail directly to Hainan's Yangpu Port, Singapore's Prime Minister Lawrence Wong urgently called for "China and Japan to let go of historical burdens," revealing the deep anxiety of the head of this "Asian toll booth."
Singapore's prosperity is built on the geographical monopoly of the Malacca Strait. 37% of global maritime trade and 50% of crude oil transportation must pass through this 37-kilometer-wide waterway, and Singapore has constructed the world's busiest transshipment port system based on this.
Data from 2024 shows that the container throughput managed by the Port of Singapore Authority reached 38 million TEUs, of which 70% are transshipment goods between Southeast Asia and East Asia.
This "shipping economy" has allowed Singapore to earn triple revenue from transshipment fees, ship fueling fees, and financial settlement fees, with 22.3% of GDP coming from wholesale trade.
However, this model has a fatal flaw: profits are paper-thin. A cargo ship transporting palm oil from Indonesia to China needs to pay a 12% transshipment fee when passing through Singapore, while Hainan's border closure directly implements a "30% value-added processing tax exemption" policy.
After the Golden Agri-Resources Group built a factory at Yangpu Port, processing costs dropped by 18%, saving $120 million each year. Even more alarming for Singapore is that the direct shipping line from Yangpu Port to Jakarta shortens the travel time by 5 days, and cargo damage rates drop from 8% to 3%.
The policy dividends released by Hainan's border closure can be described as a precise strike: tax scissors difference: corporate income tax cut from 25% to 15%, and the highest personal income tax rate cut from 45% to 15%, 5 percentage points lower than Singapore. The owner of a 300,000-ton oil tanker can save 240,000 yuan on a single refueling.
Value-added processing traps: Southeast Asian raw materials processed in Hainan and sold to the mainland are exempt from tariffs, directly cutting into the core profits of Singapore's transshipment trade. Thai rubber is directly transported to Hainan via the China-Laos railway, and after being processed into tires, is fully exempt from tariffs, saving 12% compared to transshipment via Singapore.
This downward strike is rewriting the rules of the game. When Hainan uses the "domestic customs outside" system to attract companies to produce locally, Singapore's "toll fee" model becomes an inefficient "toll booth."
In response to the impact, Singapore has launched two major self-rescue plans: green shipping hub: investing 3 billion Singapore dollars to renovate the docks and promote hydrogen fuel supply stations. In July 2025, the world's first hydrogen-powered cargo ship "Singapore" will conduct trial navigation, claiming a 50% reduction in carbon emissions.
Digital trade barriers: launching the "Starlink Port" system to achieve paperless documentation through blockchain technology. However, reality is harsh — in the third quarter of 2025, 63% of Southeast Asian enterprises still give up using it due to system compatibility issues.
These efforts have yielded little effect. The fundamental contradiction lies in: Singapore's land area limits the space for industrial upgrading. Yangpu Port has a 120 square kilometer bonded area, capable of simultaneously accommodating 200 300,000-ton cargo ships, while Singapore's Jurong Port has a maximum capacity of only 30 ships.
Hainan's border closure marks the entry of the global shipping pattern into the "dual-core drive" stage: Singapore continues to control high-end services: 6.8% of global foreign exchange transactions are still concentrated here, and the number of multinational regional headquarters is three times that of Hainan.
Hainan is creating a complete industrial chain: relying on a market of 1.4 billion people, Hainan is forming a "processing-research and development-sales" closed loop. By 2025, Hainan's new energy vehicle production will exceed 500,000 units, with 70% of components coming from Southeast Asia.
This division of labor is reconstructing the profit chain. When Malaysian palm oil companies choose to build factories in Hainan, Singapore's warehousing revenue decreases by 15%; when Vietnamese coffee beans are rerouted through Yangpu Port, Singapore's futures trading volume drops by 12%.
In the 1990s, Dubai rose through free trade zone policies, with Dubai Port's container throughput soaring from 3 million TEUs in 1995 to 21 million TEUs in 2025.
Singapore's response strategy is worth pondering: on one hand, cooperating with Dubai to open a "Middle East-Southeast Asia" express line, and on the other hand, secretly suppressing UAE shipping companies.
History may repeat itself. The competition between Hainan and Singapore is essentially a collision between "policy innovation" and "traditional advantages." When Hainan attracts the industrial chain with "value-added processing" and cultivates the domestic demand market with "tax-exempt consumption," Singapore's "toll booth" model is doomed to be unsustainable.
Behind Hainan's border closure is the covert battle between China and the United States in the South China Sea. The Chinese Navy's "Fujian" aircraft carrier conducts regular patrols to ensure the safety of shipping routes from Yangpu Port to Europe. Data from 2025 shows that the accident rate of merchant ships in the South China Sea has dropped to 0.02%, equivalent to that of the Malacca Strait.
Singapore's anxiety lies in: if China completely controls the South China Sea shipping routes, the strategic value of the Malacca Strait will plummet. This concern has driven Singapore to accelerate its alignment with the United States, with joint military exercises increasing by 40% year-on-year in 2025.
Standing on the observation deck of Yangpu Port, looking out at the South China Sea, the silhouette of a 10,000-ton giant ship cutting through the morning mist contrasts eerily with the American reconnaissance aircraft on the horizon. Hainan's border closure is not meant to replace Singapore, but to prove that in this era where efficiency reigns, any business model that relies on geographical advantages may be overturned.
As China breaks the monopoly with institutional innovation and companies replace transshipment trade with industrial chain integration, Singapore's "golden age" will inevitably come to an end.
There are no losers in this transformation — Southeast Asian countries benefit from lower logistics costs, China unlocks its domestic demand market, while Singapore needs to consider: where should the next "toll booth" be built?
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
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