The **PCE** (Personal Consumption Expenditures) index of the US, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, for October or November 2025 may be **postponed** due to the impact of the **US government shutdown** lasting (about 43 days, the longest in history).
Main reasons:
- The shutdown has caused many government agencies, including the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA - the unit that publishes PCE) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS - related to linked data such as CPI), to temporarily cease operations.
- Data collection has been interrupted, leading to the cancellation or postponement of some reports (e.g., September 2025 data has been postponed to December 5, 2025, October data collection has been canceled, and the October-November PCE reports have not been fully rescheduled as of December 19, 2025).
- This causes the Fed and the market to lack crucial economic data, making it difficult to assess inflation and decide on interest rates.
According to the latest schedule from BEA, the PCE data update for previous months (July-September) is expected on **December 23, 2025**, but more recent month data may still be affected. If you are waiting for specific month data, it may not be published in time due to the consequences of the shutdown. The market is closely monitoring as PCE significantly impacts Fed interest rate expectations.
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