Has the Fed’s hawks pushed gold below 4,000 again? Don’t panic, bro.
This chart from Jin10 is pretty clear—the rhythm of the gold bull market is switching, and the hawks are tougher than people expected. The key information is that in June they maintained the interest rate at 97.6%, and the expectation of rate cuts this year is now zero. Under this “high rates for longer” script, the dollar and U.S. Treasuries are basically a blood-sucking pump.
My take: Gold is the old hand among safe-haven assets—it can take it. $BTC is probably just trying to hop on the bandwagon; the odds favor it following down more than jumping up. But this time it’s different—BTC and gold correlation has been converging over the long term. (In June, the ETF saw 4 straight weeks of redemptions totaling $1.7B; the coin didn’t crash and stayed around 59k.) This suggests some people are using the “digital gold” logic to allocate to BTC, not leveraged money.
Strategy-wise: A break of 3,000 for gold is a real signal. $BTC , watch the 58k support line. Over. Chat with everyone in the comments—are you planning to buy which side? #宏观分析 #避险资产 #美联储
This chart from Jin10 is pretty clear—the rhythm of the gold bull market is switching, and the hawks are tougher than people expected. The key information is that in June they maintained the interest rate at 97.6%, and the expectation of rate cuts this year is now zero. Under this “high rates for longer” script, the dollar and U.S. Treasuries are basically a blood-sucking pump.
My take: Gold is the old hand among safe-haven assets—it can take it. $BTC is probably just trying to hop on the bandwagon; the odds favor it following down more than jumping up. But this time it’s different—BTC and gold correlation has been converging over the long term. (In June, the ETF saw 4 straight weeks of redemptions totaling $1.7B; the coin didn’t crash and stayed around 59k.) This suggests some people are using the “digital gold” logic to allocate to BTC, not leveraged money.
Strategy-wise: A break of 3,000 for gold is a real signal. $BTC , watch the 58k support line. Over. Chat with everyone in the comments—are you planning to buy which side? #宏观分析 #避险资产 #美联储