The economic outlook in Colombia closes 2025 with notable dynamism in the USD/COP pair. As we approach the end of the year, the TRM has shown an interesting stabilization, standing in the range of $3,874.71 COP (valid for this December 19).
This behavior is not coincidental; it responds to a complex mix of local monetary policy decisions, the country's fiscal health, and the global strength of the dollar.
1. The Current Context: Why is the peso moving like this?
In recent weeks, we have seen a slight upward trend after a period of peso appreciation. The key points that are moving the needle are:
Interest Rates: The Central Bank maintains its intervention rate at 9.25%. The market is closely watching the meeting on December 19, where any change or signal of a pause in the cutting cycle will directly impact liquidity.
Rate Differential with the Fed: While the Federal Reserve in the U.S. suggests possible adjustments, Colombia is trying to balance inflation control with the need for economic dynamism.
External Factors: The increase in the current account deficit (projected at 2.6% of GDP for 2025 by Fedesarrollo) puts pressure on the local currency against external shocks.
2. Short-Term Technical Analysis
For those trading with stablecoins or arbitraging on Binance's P2P, these are the key levels identified by analysts:
Price Range Level (COP) Meaning
Resistance $3,890 - $3,910 Zone where the price usually faces difficulties in continuing to rise.
Breakeven Point | $3,860 | Current average trading price.
Support | $3,820 - $3,830 | Defensive buying level where the peso tends to strengthen.
3. How to take advantage of this on Binance?
The volatility of the USD/COP does not have to be a risk; it can be an opportunity if the right tools are used:
Stablecoins (USDT/USDC): In times of local uncertainty, sheltering in digital dollars helps protect purchasing power against a possible sudden devaluation of the peso.
Binance P2P: It is the ideal tool for converting pesos to dollars (and vice versa) quickly, taking advantage of market fluctuations in real time without the restrictions of traditional banking hours.
Auto-Investment: If your vision is long-term, setting up recurring purchases of USDT allows you to average the cost of the dollar, mitigating the impact of buying at a price peak.
To conclude:
The end of 2025 presents us with a "stable but alert" dollar. With a TRM that has significantly decreased compared to the levels of $4,400 at the beginning of the year, the Colombian peso has shown resilience. However, investors must stay informed about inflation data and the decisions of the Central Bank that will mark the beginning of 2026.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research.
