In-depth Analysis
1. Impact of the Bank of Japan's rate hike (December 19, 2025)
Overview:
The Bank of Japan raised its interest rates to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995, thereby strengthening the yen and weighing on risky assets like cryptocurrencies. XMR fell by 1.1% to $421, showing underperformance compared to Bitcoin (+0.3%) and Solana (+0.1%). However, the recent reduction in cryptocurrency taxes in Japan (from 55% to 20%) could encourage Japanese investors to accumulate XMR in the long term.
In summary:
The Bank of Japan's restrictive turn is putting pressure on privacy-focused cryptocurrencies by reducing the liquidity of carry trade operations in yen. However, Monero's resilience (only -1.1% compared to the overall weakness of altcoins) demonstrates strong conviction from its holders. ( CoinMarketCap )
2. New resistance test at $420 (December 18, 2025)
Overview:
XMR has bounced off support at $404 and is testing the resistance zone of $420-435 again, a level not explored since November 2017. Analysts note bullish divergences at the volume and RSI levels, but the MACD advises caution. A breakout could target $517 (all-time high of 2021).
Interpretation:
This technical inflection point reflects Monero's unique position: privacy advocates accumulate during downturns, while investors await macroeconomic catalysts. A sustained close above $435 would invalidate six years of resistance. ( CCN )
3. Hyperliquid XMR listings (December 19, 2025)
Overview:
The decentralized perpetual contracts platform Hyperliquid has added XMR trading, thus bypassing the restrictions of centralized exchange platforms. This decision follows delistings on major platforms like Bit2Me (October 2024) due to conflicts related to FATF travel rule regulations.
In summary:
The adoption of DEX preserves Monero's accessibility despite tightening regulation. Liquidity fragmentation remains a risk, but the demand for derivatives (open interest over 24h: +7.59%) reflects institutional investors' interest in privacy protection. ( CryptoCondom )
Conclusion
Monero finds a balance between positive technical indicators and regulatory frictions, with policy changes in Japan and the growth of DEX offsetting the pullbacks from CEX. Will growing concerns about global surveillance finally allow XMR to break through its 2017 resistance, or will liquidity constraints limit its progress? Watch the $420 to $435 area and the Bank of Japan's forecasts for clues.$XMR
