Everyone, the Federal Reserve quietly launched a new tool at the December interest rate meeting—the Reserve Management Purchase Program (RMP). Although the official wording is cautious, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes bluntly stated: this is essentially a rebranded quantitative easing (QE), and a new surge of dollar liquidity is about to arrive.
Hayes's prophecy is full of temptation: after a short-term consolidation, Bitcoin will return to the historical high of $124,000, and then challenge the $200,000 mark. However, the day after his high-profile bullish comments, he transferred $1.5 million of ETH to institutions—what is more honest, the big shot's words or wallet?
RMP = QE? The Fed's 'word games' have been exposed.
According to Evercore ISI's forecast, the Fed's RMP plan will officially be implemented in January 2026, with monthly purchases of about $35 billion in short-term government bonds, and the annual balance sheet expansion will exceed $400 billion. Although the Fed avoids using the sensitive term 'QE', the market sees through the essence: when the central bank actively expands its balance sheet to inject liquidity into the system, regardless of what it's called, the effect is no different from quantitative easing.
Hayes pointed out in an article published on December 20 (Love Language) that this policy marks the 'end of the era of quantitative tightening', indicating that the risk of long-term devaluation of fiat currencies is intensifying. Historical data corroborates his logic: there is a significant positive correlation between the Fed's balance sheet size and Bitcoin prices. Once the flood of liquidity is unleashed, it will inevitably seek value storage vehicles, and Bitcoin, with its fixed supply, will become one of the biggest beneficiaries.
The $200,000 roadmap: The time window hides secrets.
Hayes has outlined a clear path for Bitcoin's rise:
Phase One (Short-term): The market oscillates in the $80,000 to $100,000 range, waiting for cognitive awakening.
Phase Two (Breakthrough): When investors generally realize that 'RMP=QE', Bitcoin will quickly return to its previous high of $124,000 and accelerate towards $200,000.
Phase Three (Peak): Around March 2026, market sentiment may reach a phase peak. Even if there is a subsequent pullback, the overall bottom will be far above $124,000, forming a new value center.
This prediction aligns with the current technical analysis. Fidelity's digital asset report indicates that around $85,500 has gathered 430,000 BTC buy orders, forming strong support. The $92,000 to $93,500 range is the key resistance area; once broken, it will open the way to above $100,000.
Has smart money already acted? Hayes's 'paradox of speech and action' has sparked speculation.
Interestingly, although Hayes was very bullish in the article, when the market rebounded on December 19, he transferred 508.647 ETH (worth about $1.5 million) to Galaxy Digital. Such on-chain transfers are typically interpreted as a precursor to selling for cash.
This is not an isolated case. Historically, many crypto moguls' public statements often diverge from their personal actions. Market veterans understand: 'Don't listen to what they say; watch what they do.' Hayes's transfer behavior may suggest:
1. Short-term Profit Taking: Even if you are optimistic in the long term, it doesn't hurt to reduce positions at key resistance levels.
2. Hedging Risks: Institutional investors need to manage risk exposure through dynamic position adjustments.
3. Information Asymmetry Trading: Industry insiders with more micro data may be more sensitive than ordinary investors.
Macro Traps: Liquidity Expectations vs. Policy Realities
What needs to be heeded is that the real impact of the RMP carries a high degree of uncertainty. Although the Fed announced the end of balance sheet reduction at the December meeting, three voting members opposed interest rate cuts, indicating internal reservations about easing policies. If Powell emphasizes policy caution or delays clarifying RMP details, Bitcoin may drop back to the $75,000 to $82,000 range.
The deeper risk lies in the rebound of inflation. The RMP is essentially debt monetization, and if it triggers secondary inflation, the Federal Reserve may be forced to turn hawkish again. At that time, the 'narrative of stimulus' will instantly reverse.
Investor Strategies: Distinguishing Signals from Noise
In the face of a complex situation, ordinary investors should focus on three core variables:
4. Changes in the Fed's Balance Sheet: Pay attention to the H.4.1 report every Thursday to track the actual pace of balance sheet expansion.
5. U.S. Treasury Yield Curve: If long-term yields decline in sync with the RMP, it confirms liquidity easing.
6. Institutional Positioning Data: Monitor the flow of funds into spot ETFs and changes in whale addresses.
The current market is in the 'expectation pricing' phase. The Fidelity report points out that Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq is as high as 0.8, making it the 'risk asset standard configuration' for traditional institutions. This means Bitcoin's short-term performance is still constrained by U.S. stock market sentiment, and a truly independent bull market requires substantial liquidity effects to manifest.
Conclusion: Finding opportunities amidst the cracks between narrative and reality.
Arthur Hayes' prediction of $200,000 is essentially a supreme bet against the fiat currency system. Regardless of whether RMP truly equates to QE, one thing is certain: major central banks around the world can no longer bear genuine tightening, and balance sheet expansion is a long-term trend.
However, investors need to be clear that the words of the big players are narrative weapons, and the direction of their wallets is the real vote. Instead of blindly following predictions, it's better to establish your own signal system—focus on data, not stories; manage risks, not chase returns.
Do you think the RMP will trigger a new round of crypto bull markets? Is Hayes's transfer behavior smart maneuvering or a lack of confidence? Feel free to share your insights in the comments!
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