When the Bank of Japan raised interest rates for the first time in thirty years, while the Federal Reserve lingered on the edge of rate cuts, the global capital game rules that had persisted for over twenty years have been completely rewritten. The classic arbitrage trade of 'borrowing cheap yen to sweep up high-risk global assets' is rapidly losing its fertile ground. The monetary policies of the two major central banks have shifted from 'converging' to 'diverging', directly squeezing the core profit space of arbitrage trading.
The historical script seems to be replaying, but the protagonists have changed. In the past, when Japan raised interest rates, Bitcoin would often plummet by more than 20%; yet this time, the market has behaved surprisingly calmly. This is not a sign of the alarm being lifted, but rather an escalation of the battle—a 'global liquidity war' has already begun. On one side, Japan is slowly turning off the tap of 'cheap funds', forcing trillions of arbitrage capital to flow back; on the other side, the US Bitcoin ETF acts like a giant siphon, attracting a massive influx of traditional institutional funds. The bizarre sideways movement of Bitcoin directly reflects the silent battle of these two top capital forces.
This means that for ordinary investors, the logic of the game has completely changed:
1. The safe haven effect is prominent: funds are flooding into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other top assets viewed as 'digital gold', while many altcoins have become discarded liquidity.
2. Liquidity has become the lifeline: the key to judging the market in the future is no longer just technical charts, but the direction of the global major 'faucet' switches - the flow of US ETF funds, the stance of the Bank of Japan, and macroeconomic data will become the core coordinates.
3. Patience is more precious than aggression: during the turbulent period of giant beasts clashing, blindly chasing up and down is the easiest way to become cannon fodder. Staying observant and flexible is the way to prepare ammunition for the next clear trend.
An era dependent on 'cheap money' is coming to an end. This is not the apocalypse, but a painful period of disintegration of an old paradigm and the rebuilding of a new order. When the tide goes out, those that can stand firm are always the assets with true intrinsic value and solid logic.
Pay attention to Musk's little puppy🔥 pies
What do you think are the biggest risks and opportunities in this global capital reshuffle? Feel free to share your insights in the comments.
