The Governor of the Bank of Japan, in his speech after the interest rate hike, did not provide a clear policy timetable, but emphasized 'relying on data' and 'normalization pace.' This precisely indicates that Japan's monetary policy normalization is not a 'lightning war,' but rather a 'gradual revolution' without a timetable, with the core focus on 'stability' rather than 'speed.'
The starting point of this 'revolution' is nearly thirty years of ultra-loose monetary policy. Long-term zero and negative interest rates have profoundly affected Japan's economic structure, corporate behavior, and residents' habits. A sudden policy shift would inevitably trigger intense turmoil. Therefore, the Bank of Japan has chosen to 'take small steps slowly' by repeatedly emphasizing 'non-tightening' to guide market expectations, allowing economic entities to gradually adapt to the normal interest rate environment.
From the perspective of policy pathways, future adjustments will be entirely data-driven. The governor clearly stated that the focus of policy is on core inflation rather than short-term CPI fluctuations. As long as wages continue to rise and inflation remains stable around the 2% target, the normalization process will continue; once economic downward risks appear, the pace of adjustment will slow down. This flexible 'data-dependent' strategy is the core characteristic of gradual reform.
For the market, instead of guessing the timing of the next rate hike, it is better to pay attention to the changes in inflation and wage data. This normalization revolution has no fixed endpoint, only a dynamic balance that 'adapts to economic fundamentals'.@男神说币 #比特币流动性 $BTC
