Family! Who understands! The Bank of Japan's recent actions have left the global market both surprised and pleased, and the crypto circle even jumped a bit on the opportunity. But I advise you not to get too excited. Is this a lifeline for us, or did they dig a pit for bottom-fishing parties? The answer lies in tonight's US stock market night trading!
First, let's give a lesson to the new brothers, and old fans can skip to the key points: Today, the Bank of Japan officially announced an interest rate hike. The market had already guessed this quite accurately, so it's not really a black swan event. The real key point is that after the meeting, the governor came out to speak with a tone as soft as cotton candy, and the clear 'dovish' signals were almost overflowing. The core message is simple: we will take our time with future rate hikes, no rush.
After saying this, the global market immediately acted like it had received a short-acting stimulant, with the stock market and cryptocurrencies surging up. But I have to pour a bucket of cold water on this; I personally have doubts about the quality of this rebound. After years of crypto analysis, the most taboo thing is being led by emotions. This kind of rise solely supported by policy statements raises the question: is it a brief pullback after a sharp drop (those who understand know, it’s that kind of technical rebound after a significant fall), or has it truly dropped to a bottom worth waiting for? It’s too early to draw conclusions now.
Here’s some insights for everyone. Why do I say that tonight’s U.S. stock market is a key litmus test? The logic is quite simple: the global risk asset 'big brother' is still the U.S. stock market, and its trends directly determine the risk appetite of the entire market. Think about it, if the U.S. stock market manages to catch the 'dovish package' from the Bank of Japan tonight and continues to rise, it indicates that the market really believes in the idea of 'no tightening of policies moving forward'. In that case, the crypto market’s rebound might have a bit more breathing room. However, if the U.S. stock market doesn’t buy into it and instead spikes and then falls back, then this small rebound in the crypto circle is likely just a 'flash in the pan', and it could even be a prelude to a new round of declines.
Let’s also discuss the actual impact on our crypto circle. My personal judgment is 'short-term emotional soothing, long-term logic unchanged'. After all, the crypto market is still a little brother following global liquidity. Although the Bank of Japan is adopting a dovish stance, it's merely 'slowing down interest rate hikes', not 'not raising rates' or 'cutting rates'. The overall direction of tightening liquidity hasn’t changed. To those brothers who are eager to buy the dip right now, I advise you to wait a bit longer. Don’t mistake the 'gentleness' of policies as a signal for trend reversal; otherwise, it’s easy to end up standing halfway up the mountain, feeling the wind.
Lastly, let’s talk about something practical. Everyone, don’t stay up all night stubbornly holding on, but make sure to keep an eye on the U.S. stock market’s closing situation. I have already organized the key observation indicators: whether the Nasdaq 100 index can hold its key support level, how the tech stocks perform, and the fluctuations of the U.S. dollar index. These data directly relate to the opening direction of the crypto market tomorrow.
Following me is the right move
