Behind the overnight plunge, smart money is quietly changing positions.
At three o'clock yesterday morning, a netizen who was full of confidence three months ago sent a farewell message: 'Teacher, I can't hold on anymore, my account is down to one-third.' The accompanying position screenshot shows that his leverage was completely breached during the 8% drop on November 10.
This is not the first investor to fall before dawn. In the past month, the market has played out the classic script of 'good news turns into bad news' with the end of the White House shutdown and the Federal Reserve's rate cuts. Every piece of news has been interpreted as a signal for a surge, but it has instead become a perfect trap for the main players to harvest.
But while most people panic, I have sensed the spring of altcoins amidst the crash.
01 The emotional cycle trap; if you understand it, you are the hunter rather than the prey.
The market always repeats the same story. When Bitcoin is near its historical high, large traders generally choose to take profits, while retail investors are buying frantically. When the price plummets, retail investors panic-sell, but whales quietly absorb the shares.
Looking back at mid-October, the Federal Reserve signaled interest rate cuts, how many people set alarms to wake up in the middle of the night to increase their positions? As a result, Bitcoin opened high but closed low, with a slight increase of 0.3%, not even enough to cover the transaction fees.
This is not a market anomaly, but classic emotional manipulation.
On November 10, the news of the White House ending the shutdown officially landed, and Bitcoin instead dropped from 68,000 USD to 62,000, with a single-day decline of 8%. Those who shouted 'go all in and bottom fish' the day before instantly became the targets of liquidation. The market responded to expectations in the coldest way: 'Is this it? You are too easy to deceive.'
02 The flow of funds does not lie; altcoins are starting to 'revolt.'
Real market trends are never driven by hot air. Now, a key signal is emerging: altcoins are beginning to show independence.
When Bitcoin falls by 2%, SOL can rise by 5%, while ADA remains stable. This is not a coincidence, but a clear signal that large funds are quietly switching tracks.
Looking back at September, institutions like Grayscale invested 500 million USD in SOL and other altcoins in a single week, while Bitcoin compliant products saw daily inflows exceeding 2 billion. At that time, the K-line looked like it was loaded with springs, and a 30% increase was the norm.
Now, although the market appears panicked, the weakening correlation of altcoins is a sign of early capital accumulation.
03 Altcoin ETFs: a quietly emerging new narrative.
Although Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs experienced net outflows in November, newly approved altcoin ETFs attracted significant capital inflows. This comparison reveals that a structural change is occurring in the market.
Currently, fund management companies like Grayscale and Bitwise have submitted ETF product applications covering cryptocurrencies like SOL, XRP, LTC. Bloomberg analysts predict that the approval probability for the LTC ETF is as high as 90%, and the approval probability for the DOGE ETF is also 75%.
Particularly noteworthy is the staking ETF for Solana, which can bring about 5% annualized returns to holders, becoming an 'ETF that makes money.' This new product effect is reshaping the market landscape.
Assets without a strong narrative and practical value cannot attract capital even if packaged as ETFs, which is a sign of market maturity.
04 The main force's three axes; insight into the tricks can allow one to sit steadily on the fishing platform.
Through on-chain data, we can clearly see the three-step operation of the main force.
First axe: weak wash. The main force is deliberately letting altcoins fall instead of rise, creating the illusion that 'altcoins are completely dead' to force retail investors to cut losses. When SOL drops from 100 to 80, how many people can hold on without selling? As a result, the main force secretly accumulated 200 million USD in chips in the 80-85 range.
Second axe: borrowing good news to accumulate. As the approval of compliant altcoin products becomes clear, the main force will continue to collect chips at low levels while the market hesitates. Looking back, the main force continuously accumulated for a month before the approval of Bitcoin compliant products.
Third axe: rotation speculation. First, attract attention with small-cap coins, then it will be the turn for large-cap altcoins like SOL, ADA. By the time retail investors rush in, the main force has already completed its layout.
05 How to prepare for the upcoming altcoin season?
Based on the current market structure, I adopt a 'barbell strategy' where part of the funds are allocated to Bitcoin as a stable foundation, and another part is selectively allocated to promising altcoins.
Bitcoin's dominance is a key indicator. When Bitcoin's dominance falls below 60%, it often means that funds begin to flow into altcoins. Currently, this indicator has dropped from over 66% to below 60% for the first time in six months.
When choosing altcoins, I focus on two directions: mainstream coins with strong fundamentals (like SOL, ETH) and projects resonating with emerging narratives (like AI, RWA fields).
At the same time, I stay away from those thousands of new memecoins generated daily through platforms like Pump.Fun, as the oversupply will dilute liquidity, making most projects destined to fail.
Looking back at the experiences of that netizen, it is cruel yet real: the market never lacks smart people, what it lacks are those who can step out of emotions to see the funds. When retail investors focus on good news, whales are focusing on the chips of retail investors.
Now, the 'whale addresses' among the top 100 Bitcoin addresses have transferred about 100,000 Bitcoins during the market downturn, while those early whales have quietly cashed out, leaving behind huge profits for those taking profits and a group of retail investors expecting higher.
But this time, the difference is that the spring of altcoins may be more selective and rational; it won't be like 2021 where all boats rise with the tide. Only those projects with real use cases and strong fundamentals will stand out.
While most people are still lamenting the crash, I have quietly set up a regular investment plan for altcoins. How about you?
Follow me@加密崎哥 #巨鲸动向 $BTC $ETH
