Panic and greed alternate, while smart money always quietly positions itself when everyone else is leaving.
'The blockchain revolution is over!' 'This time it's really different!' When such headlines fill your social media timeline, your intuition might tell you: everything is truly over.
But as an analyst who has experienced multiple cycles, I see a different picture; history is repeating itself, but most people are not aware of it.
The market's '7-second memory'
Do you remember the despair when Bitcoin fell to $15,000 after the collapse of LUNA and FTX in 2023? At that time, experts claimed that 'the experiment of Bitcoin has failed.' However, institutions like BlackRock quietly entered the market at that moment, starting the main wave that pushed Bitcoin to a new high of $69,000.
At that time, those who sold at the bottom insisted, 'This time is different; the regulatory crackdown is too severe!'
In April this year, the tariff war broke out, and Ethereum fell to $1,300, with everyone saying, 'Holding Ethereum missed the entire bull market!' What happened next? Ethereum then began a threefold increase, soaring to $4,800.
Market sentiment is like a goldfish's memory, lasting only 7 seconds. When most people panic, real opportunities are brewing.
Three real signals to identify a 'golden pit'
So, how do we distinguish between a real 'doomsday' and a temporary 'golden pit'? I rely on the following three key indicators, rather than the emotional fluctuations on social media.
1. Institutional fund flows do not lie
According to Grayscale research, although Bitcoin has corrected about 30% from its 2025 peak, this aligns with the average correction in historical bull markets. Meanwhile, data shows that over 92% of newly mined BTC is absorbed by wallets holding for more than 155 days, while exchange BTC balances have dropped to multi-year lows. What does this mean? Smart money is accumulating, not selling.
When retail investors panic sell, institutions are quietly laying out their plans. The assets under management for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have surpassed $250 billion, accounting for 18% of the global BTC circulation. This capital will not withdraw in a few days; they are positioning for the next 3-5 years.
2. Divergence between technical and fundamental aspects
The most interesting phenomenon in the current market is that while prices are correcting, infrastructure is developing at an unprecedented speed.
Layer 2 solutions have increased Ethereum's transaction speed to over 100,000 TPS, with gas fees dropping to the $0.01 level. The market size for RWA (real-world asset) tokenization has reached $500 billion, with an annualized return of 4.7%.
When there is a significant divergence between price and technical fundamentals, it is often a good time to lay out a position. Just as Ethereum's performance was sluggish in 2025, its ecosystem was quietly upgrading, laying the groundwork for future surges.
3. Certainty of liquidity cycles
Cryptocurrencies no longer operate in isolation; they are highly correlated with global liquidity. The Fed's rate cut cycle has begun (federal funds rate falling to 3.25%), and history shows that a rate cut environment is usually favorable for cryptocurrencies.
Although short-term prices are suppressed by macro factors, the cryptocurrency market often rebounds first during liquidity cycle switches. The current market's expectation of another Fed rate cut in December may become an important potential catalyst.
My personal view: Why I am optimistic at this moment
If I were to be honest, I would say that the current market environment is one of the most attractive layout opportunities I have seen in recent years.
Not because I know exactly where the bottom is (no one knows), but because:
First, market sentiment indicators are nearing extreme pessimism. When the last wave of retail investors chooses to 'permanently leave this market,' it is usually a precursor to a reversal.
Second, the regulatory environment has undergone a fundamental change. Washington's abrupt shift has transformed cryptocurrencies from 'de facto illegal' to 'national priority development projects.' The long-term impact of this change is severely underestimated.
Third, blockchain is transitioning from a 'casino' to an 'economic operating system.' The median token inflation rate has dropped from 20% to 5%, and staking rewards are shifting to actual revenue sharing from protocols. This means that projects must create real value to survive.
Conclusion: Be a minority, win the majority's returns
'Pessimists are always right, optimists always move forward.' This saying is particularly applicable in the cryptocurrency market. Pessimists can find countless reasons to explain why the market will continue to fall, while optimists lay out plans when others are fearful and ultimately reap excess returns.
I cannot predict Bitcoin's price next week, but I believe that those leaving the market now are likely to retrieve their investments at a higher price during future liquidity surges.
In this industry, the 2/8 rule eternally exists where 80% of the profits are earned by 20% of the people. When most people think 'this time is different,' ask yourself: Am I going to follow the crowd's emotions or make independent judgments based on data and logic?
The views in this article are based on publicly available data and market analysis and do not constitute investment advice. The risks in the cryptocurrency market are extremely high; please make rational decisions and only invest funds you can afford to lose.
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