Does anyone understand?! This week, the crypto market has directly entered 'the little tormentor' mode, with typical range fluctuations pulling back and forth, and the weekly chart shows a candlestick with a long shadow. With the Christmas holidays approaching, many novice fans are anxiously asking me: 'Is it going to crash? Should I liquidate and run away?' Don't panic! As someone who has been in the crypto space for 8 years, today I will break down the underlying logic of this fluctuation and give you my exclusive trading thoughts, so that novices can directly copy without worry!
Let me first highlight my core viewpoint: the short-term fluctuations are likely to continue, but the overall structure hasn't broken down; buying on dips is the way to go. If we hit a high and don't meet key resistance, then we need to be cautious in the short term and avoid blindly chasing highs like a 'bag holder'. This isn't just a wild guess; it's derived from analyzing the recent market structure and holiday characteristics, and what follows is all substantial information.
Let’s first talk about the weekly chart, which is key to determining the overall direction. Currently, there is a 'lifeline' support area in the market, roughly around 4301, which has been tested repeatedly before (long-time followers know how accurate this key level is). If it can hold steady on a pullback later, then this wave of consolidation can still maintain a strong pattern. Conversely, the previous high resistance of 4381 is the real 'roadblock'; before a valid breakout, do not rush in. I have seen too many people get badly hurt by chasing high at resistance levels.
Let me insert a piece of my practical experience: when breaking through resistance levels, don't just look at the daily candlestick; you need to see that the closing prices of two consecutive trading days are above it, and the trading volume must follow. Otherwise, it's a 'false breakout'. If it can firmly stand above 4381, we will then focus on the pressure zones of 4400 and 4440; but if it unfortunately falls below the key support of 4271, then the pullback space will open up. At that point, strong support will be around 4220; don't stubbornly hold on, it's safer to reduce positions and observe first.
Looking at the daily chart, the recent candlesticks are like a 'meeting of dojis', one after another, clearly indicating that both bulls and bears are in a 'tug of war', with neither side gaining the upper hand. If there are no black swans or major positive news over the weekend, everyone should focus on how the price reacts after rebounding to key resistance at the beginning of the week. For short-term resistance, first look around 4348, then up to the range of 4353-4360. If it shows clear pressure here, the oscillation will have to continue; don't expect a quick resolution.
There's a small detail I want to remind everyone: the position 4328 is a short-term 'strong-weak dividing line'. If it holds steady, it indicates that the market is still oscillating towards strength; if it falls below, it is likely to seek support around 4320-4312 in the short term. Here's a little tip for beginners: don't trade frequently in a choppy market, or the transaction fees can eat up your profits. Be patient and wait for a breakout before acting in line with the trend; this can improve your win rate by half.
Lastly, regarding the special situation of the Christmas holiday, those in the know understand that during such Western holidays, institutions are busy celebrating, and market trading will certainly become thin. Therefore, before the month-end closing, the market will likely continue to oscillate in a small range; don't expect any major movements. Just enjoy the holiday and keep an eye on the key levels I mentioned earlier. There's no need to stay up every night watching the market; your health is more important than making money!
To summarize my trading plan: at the beginning of the week, focus on the range of 4328-4348; until there is a breakout, 'watch more and act less' to avoid getting emotionally affected by the back-and-forth movements. Once there is a breakout, follow the key levels to position accordingly. Remember, a choppy market is a process of 'filtering out retail investors'; only those who can remain patient will wait for the opportunity to profit.
By the way, considering that everyone might not have the energy to monitor the market during the Christmas holiday, I have prepared a 'key level alert list' that clearly outlines the support and resistance levels, as well as breakout/breakdown signals that need to be monitored. Fans who want this list can directly comment 'Christmas profit' in the comments, and I will send it to you privately! Additionally, I will do an immediate market interpretation when the market opens next week to help everyone avoid pitfalls. For those who haven't followed me yet, hurry up and click to follow.
