After trading cryptocurrencies for a long time, you will notice an interesting phenomenon: every holiday, the cryptocurrency market is likely to decline. Many people think this is 'mysticism,' but Sen Ge tells you that behind this is a deliberate layout by major players, a high probability market rule. In today's fourth piece of experience, I will discuss with you: why we need to be cautious during holidays and how to operate before the holidays.
First, let me show you a set of data: Over the past 7 years, during major holiday periods such as the Spring Festival, National Day, and Christmas, the probability of mainstream cryptocurrencies in the market dropping exceeds 70%, with an average decline between 10% and 15%. Why does this happen? There are two core reasons: First, during holiday periods, market liquidity decreases, making it easier for major players to crash the market with a small amount of capital, creating panic and allowing them to accumulate at lower prices; second, many retail investors cash out before the holidays for consumption or to avoid risks, leading to increased selling pressure and pushing the market down.
Brother Sen also didn't believe in the saying 'the market must drop during holidays' in his early years. Before the Spring Festival in 2019, I held a major cryptocurrency with a full position, thinking it would rise after the holiday. As a result, during the Spring Festival, that cryptocurrency dropped directly by 20%, and I was stuck for a full 3 months before breaking even. Since then, Brother Sen developed a habit: to reduce positions before the holiday, or even go empty.
So how should we operate specifically before the holiday? Brother Sen gives everyone three practical suggestions: First, start gradually reducing positions 3-5 days before the holiday, lowering the position to below 30%, or even emptying it. For those highly volatile and risky altcoins, priority should be given to clearing positions; Second, do not hold onto the illusion of a 'post-holiday rebound.' The uncertainty in the market is always greater than certainty, and risk avoidance should be the priority; Third, do not rush to enter the market after the holiday. Wait for clear signs of market stabilization, such as increased trading volume and the formation of bottom patterns in K-lines, before gradually adding positions.
It should also be reminded that the market response may vary during different holidays. For example, during the Western Christmas holiday, the volatility in overseas markets will be greater, so vigilance is required at this time. Additionally, during the holiday period, it is essential to closely monitor market news. If there is any significant negative news, timely measures should be taken.
Remember: the core of trading cryptocurrencies is to 'survive,' not to 'gamble on the market.' Reducing positions or going empty before the holiday may seem like missing a potential upward opportunity, but it can help you avoid a high probability of downside risk, which is the wise choice.@男神说币 #比特币流动性 $BTC
