Friends, I am Hongcai. The trend of LINK is quite interesting. Looking at the four-hour chart, the MACD has a golden cross above water, which is clearly a bullish signal, but the price is just hovering around $12.5 and not touching the resistance level of $12.9. What’s more intriguing is that on-chain data shows a mysterious new address has withdrawn nearly $2.5 million worth of LINK from Binance all at once! Is this a smokescreen or a charge signal?
News
Looking again at the $2.5 million withdrawal news. When a large amount of tokens is withdrawn from an exchange, it usually means there's no urgency to sell. Instead, it indicates a plan to hold or transfer to other operations. This is a somewhat medium to long-term bullish signal, suggesting that large funds recognize LINK's value at this position and are quietly accumulating tokens. They are not here to do charity by pushing up the price; their cost zone often coincides with our opportunity zone.
Technical aspect
The MACD has a golden cross above water, indicating that the bullish trend is still there. But if you look at the volume, it has obviously shrunk, which is called a divergence between volume and price. It's like climbing a slope: the engine is losing power, but the slope is getting steeper. If you don't take a break, it's easy to slide back.
The upper levels of 12.9 and 13.7 are two strong resistances, where a large amount of previous trapped positions have accumulated. There's a key point here: a true strong breakthrough often requires a false drop to clean up floating positions. Where will this false drop hit?
So what exactly should we do?
Short term: closely monitor the performance when the price rebounds near 12.9 USD. If there is stagnation or weakness in the upward movement, you can tentatively short with a very small position.
Medium to long term: patiently wait for a correction! If the price can healthily pull back to the strong support areas of 12.3 or even 11.5 USD, and there are clear signals of slowing down the decline and balance between bulls and bears, that will be an excellent opportunity to gradually build long positions, going with the trend and betting on a greater increase afterwards.
My point of view
The current market is a game between the intention of large funds to accumulate and the short-term adjustment demand of the technical aspect. I judge that the market needs a decent correction to digest short-term profit-taking and test the firmness of the support below, laying a solid foundation for a subsequent breakthrough of the pressure level. Blindly chasing up is likely to get trapped in the short term.
If you are always confused about why the price doesn't rise when good news comes? Why does the coin you are optimistic about adjust as soon as you buy it? That's right, because what you see is the surface, not the essence. In the chat room, I will not only interpret the deep meanings of significant on-chain movements in real-time but also combine multi-timeframe technical analysis to accurately locate those excellent entry points near the cost zone of big players.
Do you want to know where the key support level that the false drop is most likely to reach is? And how to identify the true signal when large funds have finished accumulating and are ready to start? The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is a prepared mind. I'll be in the chat room, waiting for you.#加密市场观察 $LINK
