Today's crypto market is a split scene of 'some are bottom fishing while others are escaping' — hidden layouts in panic, and expectations of pullbacks wrapped in rebounds.
1. Today's news: Bull and bear signals collide 🚨
🐋Whale buying against the market: spent 221 million to buy 2509 BTC in 24 hours, quietly picking up chips amidst panic;
🏦BlackRock's reverse operation: sold 173.7 million BTC + 75.4 million ETH, institutional actions clearly diverging;
🐻CryptoQuant issues bear market warning: BTC may drop to 70,000 in 3-6 months, with another exploration of 56,000 in the second half of 2026;
⚠️Short liquidation alert: if BTC touches 93000, over 4 billion in leveraged shorts will be liquidated;
🌊 The fourth quarter is a "waste": the gains in the first three quarters have been completely offset by this wave of decline.
2. Mainstream coin trends: weak rebound hides structural risks 📊
From the volume-price structure of the 1-hour / 4-hour chart, this rebound looks more like a "weak recovery" rather than a trend reversal:
$BTC : Just breaking free from the downward trend line pressure, but the rebound presents a "secondary high structure" — this peak has not broken the previous high, and the bullish volume continues to shrink, typical of a weak recovery market. The probability of retracing to 84000-85000 support later is relatively high.
$ETH : After breaking away from the descending channel, a short-term fluctuation platform is built at 2980-3000. It is expected to first retrace to 2838-2900 to complete chip exchange. Only if there is sufficient support in this range can there be momentum to challenge the 3150 resistance level.
$BNB : The trading volume anomaly on the 19th belongs to "increased volume stagnation" (increased volume but not breaking critical resistance). The current price deviates from the short-term moving average, and under the demand for divergence rate repair, it is highly likely to retrace to the 830-840 range (the recent lower edge of the fluctuation box, if lost, the structure will turn weak).
3. Operation reminder: Don't catch the "tail end" of weak recovery 📌
The current market is a "collision of long-term layout and short-term hedging logic": whales buying the dip hold long-term chips, but BlackRock's reduction of positions + bear market warnings reflect institutional short-term hedging sentiment. Coupled with the volume-price divergence in a weak rebound — chasing the rise at this time is equivalent to catching the "tail end of weak recovery," which has very low cost-performance ratio. A more reasonable strategy is to wait for the pullback to be in place: observe the volume support in the BTC support zone, the chip exchange signal after ETH's retracement, and then choose the direction for operation to avoid being caught at the rebound peak.
(Not investment advice, DYOR!)
