Last night a fan messaged me: “Teacher, why have I been trading contracts for three months with a win rate of 60% and still lost everything?”
I replied to him: “Because after one margin call, winning 100 times before is all in vain.”
In this market, 90% of retail investors ultimately lose money, it's not about being foolish, but rather the level of capital determines behavioral logic.
1. Poor, so more willing to gamble? This is a human nature trap
Data shows that among A-share retail investors, accounts with capital below 500,000 account for over 96%, and the average return of this group is far lower than that of large investors. Why?
With a capital of 50,000: earning 20% only yields 10,000, not enough to change phones, only able to chase 'hundred-fold coins' and 'meme coins', hoping for a turnaround;
5 million capital: use 30% to buy Yangtze Power for dividends, with an annualized return of 5%, that's 75,000, stable mindset.
It's not an IQ difference, but the thickness of the wallet that forces people to become gamblers. Large funds seek 'stability', small funds gamble 'life', this is a physical law.
2. The coin circle is even harsher: leverage is the 'poor man's bomb'
The 7×24 hour trading in the coin circle, and the hundred times contracts magnify human weaknesses to the extreme:
Spot down 50%? The coin is still there, wait for the bull market to possibly break even;
Contract opens at 10x, down 10%? Directly goes to zero, not even a chance to average down.
What's even more brutal is that the shallower the liquidity, the crazier the volatility. A whale selling 100 BTC can cause altcoins to spike 30%, setting a stop loss is useless, slippage can break your position.
3. The only secret to survival: change the 'itchy hands'
I've seen too many people:
Watching K-lines during the day, scrolling Twitter at night, anxious to the point of insomnia;
Golden cross chasing long, dead cross cutting loss, repeatedly harvested.
In the end, trading is about muscle memory:
One rule repeated ten thousand times (like 'buy when breaking the 20-day line, stop loss when breaking down') is more useful than changing strategies every day;
Position management is always greater than timing—never open a position more than 2% of your capital, even if you explode 10 times, you can still survive.
4. My honest advice: retail investors should only play spot.
Why do I advise ordinary people to stay away from contracts?
Spot is investment, contract is gambling: hold BTC/ETH in spot, high probability to make money in a bull market; 90% of people in contracts don't survive more than 3 months;
Time is your friend: you can lie down and wait for the bull market in spot, but contracts require constant monitoring, making it easy for your mindset to collapse.
If you really want to try contracts, remember:
Leverage should not exceed 3 times, use it like spot;
Always set a stop loss for each trade, never average down on a loss.
The last piece of useful info
You can't change the thickness of your wallet, but you can change your habits:
Change 'trade every day' to 'check the market once a week';
Change 'All in' to 'DCA';
Change 'chasing highs and cutting losses' to 'only buy blue chips that have dropped 80%.'
Survive, wait for the wind to come—In a bull market, even pigs can fly, but you must ensure you don't starve in a bear market.
Follow Xiang Ge to learn more first-hand information and precise points in the coin circle, become your navigation in the coin circle, learning is your greatest wealth!#巨鲸动向 #加密市场观察 $ETH
