$BTC $ETH
Today, Bitcoin is still fluctuating around 88k. This 'painting door' market is boring, but for both spot and contract players, it is an expected consolidation washout. The market remains relatively weak, with fluctuations up and down, making contract operations more difficult. However, one point is quite clear: a change in trend is imminent, and high open interest (OI) will inevitably be accompanied by a violent directional breakout.
There are still two major possible trends here. The first is a false breakout upwards to test the daily resistance level (near the upper Bollinger Band), creating a 4-hour false breakout wave that misleads the bulls into thinking it's a bull return, and then starting the C-wave decline, targeting 85,000.
The second type is to test the support by probing downwards, revisiting the weekly level support (EMA/moving average dense area), washing out the unsteady chips, and then starting the rebound, again aiming to reach above 90,000.
The common point of these two waves of trends is 'range oscillation'. The difference lies in whether it rises first and then falls or falls first and then rises. In this frustrating oscillating market, holding a one-sided position is a big taboo; grid thinking or range arbitrage is the way to go. Practical experience shows that in oscillating markets, the profit from high selling and low buying is very objective.
Since the more probable trend is a clear box oscillation, this person's plan is to ambush at the upper and lower edges of the box; whether it is to lure bulls upwards or dig pits downwards, we will not miss out:
Strategy one (betting on rejection at the upper pressure point):
The major coin has a short position near 89000. This is a dense area of chips that has repeatedly surged and then retreated, and it is also the best position to lure bulls. Set a stop at 90200 to prevent a real breakthrough, and directly look for a pullback to 85000 below.
Although Ethereum (ETH) is weak, it has strong correlation. Short at 3020, target at 3080, aiming for 2780. The rebound of Ethereum has been continuously suppressed, and the probability of a further drop is high.
Strategy two (betting on the rebound from the lower support):
If it drops down first, do not panic. The major coin has a long position at 87800, which is the central support of the past few days, aiming for 87000. If it breaks, acknowledge it, with a target of 91000.
Ethereum has a long position at 2950, which is the 'Capital Lock Point', with very strong support, aiming for 2900 and a target of 3150.
Emphasizing again, this is a dual opportunity at the end of the oscillation. The current OI data is very high, indicating a huge divergence between bulls and bears, and a 'heaven and earth needle' may appear at any time. Therefore, contract operations require great patience; do not enter the market until the price reaches the target point, and execute decisively when it does.
I hope this frustrating market ends soon, so prepare well for both hands.
⭐⭐ All the above are personal opinions and actions, not trading advice; you bear the risk.
