Have We Entered Bitcoin’s “Bear Market Zone”?

Here’s a clear, rules-based view — no emotions, no vibes.

If a bear market is defined by:

A drawdown of 20%+ from the all-time high

Price trading below the 200-day moving average

Confirmed bearish trend strength

Then yes — Bitcoin is currently in the bear-market area.

Why this qualifies as bearish:

BTC is down roughly 30% from its ATH (~126K → ~88K)

Price is below the 200-day MA (~104K)

Trend indicators show bearish dominance (high ADX with −DI above +DI)

Most technical models are flashing Sell

Market sentiment is sitting in Extreme Fear

But here’s the important nuance 👇 While the trend is bearish, some classic late-bear / final bottom signals are still missing:

Funding rates are near neutral, not deeply negative

Futures markets remain in contango with healthy carry

RSI is weak, but not at capitulation levels

Bottom line: Bitcoin is in a bearish trend regime, but it hasn’t yet shown the kind of panic, forced selling, and exhaustion that typically mark a major cycle bottom.

In short:

Bear market conditions — yes.

Full capitulation bottom — not yet confirmed.