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Why is the hardest part in the cycle not judging the direction, but doing nothing?
In the middle of the cycle, many people have a delusion: as long as the direction is judged correctly, the rest is just a matter of execution. But after experiencing several rounds of market conditions, you will find that judging the direction has never been the hardest part; the real difficulty is being able to resist the urge to act after you have already grasped the general direction.
Especially in the current environment, where macro expectations are repeatedly revised, and both bullish and bearish factors appear in turn, there seem to be reasonable explanations for price movements in both directions. You are not completely without judgment, but any single judgment is insufficient to justify your emotional and financial investment in action. The market does not give you a clear signal, but constantly provides you with incentives.