Event overview
Just today, on-chain data detected the 'Trump Insider Whale' that precisely escaped the peak before the market flash crash in October making a move again! Through a series of covert actions, it added a short position of $90 million in Bitcoin, bringing its total short size close to $500 million. Even stranger, this short position was completed just a few hours before a key policy announcement from Trump, timing so precise it’s chilling.
The whale's 'divine operation' dossier
This whale is no ordinary player:
Before the major crash in October, it had pre-positioned $700 million in Bitcoin shorts + $350 million in Ethereum shorts, ultimately making a net profit of $200 million;
After this short position, its unrealized profits have accumulated to about $22 million, and other whales have also simultaneously increased their positions in SOL, DOGE, and other altcoin shorts;
Operational style is extremely covert: splitting orders + OTC trading, avoiding exposing intentions.
Three major doubts: what do they know?
Insider information advantage?
The bets of the whales are highly synchronized with Trump's policy announcements, raising questions about 'information asymmetry.' Historical data shows that policy-related black swan events (such as tariff statements) have caused Bitcoin to plummet by 15% in a single day (like the crash on October 11). If Trump releases negative signals this time, whales may harvest again.
Signs of a regulatory storm?
Recently, U.S. regulatory dynamics have intensified (such as the Federal Reserve tightening on bank crypto operations), and the whale may anticipate an escalation in compliance risks. Especially since the Biden faction holds a cautious stance on the crypto industry, if Trump shifts to a hardline approach, market sentiment will suffer greatly.
Is there a technical 'stop-loss hunting' trap?
The current Bitcoin funding rate has turned negative, reflecting excessive shorting in the market. The whale may deliberately crash the price to trigger retail long stop-losses (about $2.6 billion in long liquidation lines concentrated at $80,000), then buy low to push a rebound to $90,000.
My personal judgment
As someone who has experienced three rounds of bull and bear markets, I believe:
Short-term risks outweigh opportunities: the whale's 'prophet' record is too hardcore, compounded by ETF net outflows (like BlackRock recently moving 704 BTC to exchanges), prices may dip to the $100,000 support level;
But don't blindly follow the shorts: negative funding rates are brewing a short squeeze; if positive news suddenly emerges (like pension funds entering the market), shorts may get caught off guard;
Core strategy: reduce leverage, set stop-loss points far from round numbers (like below $110,000), to avoid being 'stop-loss hunted.'
To be honest, seeing this kind of operation sends chills down my spine— the script of 'whales eating krill' is playing out again! The Bank for International Settlements report points out: large investors always sell before a crash, while retail investors become the bag holders. But don't forget, Trump himself holds a large amount of crypto assets; if his policies ultimately benefit the market (like opening investment channels for pensions), this whale may get reverse shot.
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