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🔥🔥Regarding the next Federal Reserve Chair candidate, the prediction market’s direction has changed.
The market currently favors Hassett (Brian Hassett) the most. He has a winning probability of over 50% on two mainstream prediction markets (Polymarket and Kalshi), significantly ahead of other candidates.
In simple terms, more people are starting to bet real money that he will take office.
Hassett is currently the Director of the White House National Economic Council and was a former economic advisor to Trump. He recently sparked a discussion with his view that the commonly used annual inflation rate calculation is inaccurate and suggested looking at three months of average data instead.
Other major candidate probability rankings:
· Second place: Former Federal Reserve Governor Warsh (Kevin Warsh)
· Third place: Current Federal Reserve Governor Waller (Christopher Waller)
Key points to consider calmly:
1. This is only a betting probability in the prediction market and does not equal the final result. Who becomes Chair requires presidential nomination and congressional approval, and there are still many variables.
2. If the expectation of Hassett taking office continues to strengthen, it may affect the market's speculation on the Federal Reserve's future interest rate hikes/cuts, subsequently impacting the prices of various assets.
3. However, everything is still in the early expectation stage; how the market will ultimately move depends on actual economic data and official policies.
In conclusion, this is a new dynamic worth noting, but there is no need for an overreaction. Investment decisions should still be based on more comprehensive information and one's own judgment.
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