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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) in the past 11 years has priced its Bear Cycle bottoms either 17 or 18 months before the next Halving. As you can see on this chart, historically the January 2015 bottom was priced 18 months before Halving 2 (July 09 2016), the December 2018 bottom was priced 17 months before Halving 3 (May 11 2020) and the November 2022 bottom was also priced 17 months before Halving 4 (April 20 2024).
With Halving 5 estimated around April 2028, we can expect the current Bear Cycle bottomed to be formed either in October (18 months before) or November (17 months before) that event.
Since BTC just touched its 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), which is where the 2015 and 2018 bottoms were priced, expect it to drop more towards the 1M MA100 (green trend-line), closer to which the November 2022 bottom was formed.
By October - November 2026, that should be within $45000 - 42000, a range that should technically be considered the absolute last long-term Buy opportunity before the next 3-year Bull Cycle begins.
Do you agree with that Halving-Based Cycle Bottoms model? Are you also expecting a Cycle bottom within October - November 2026? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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