On December 19, the Bank of Japan raised the policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%.


The amplitude seems small, but the meaning is very clear—liquidity on the yen side is starting to tighten.


China Merchants Bank's research report also mentioned that yen carry trades may continue to reverse. What does this mean? It means that many people used to borrow low-interest yen, convert it into dollars or other high-interest assets to earn interest differentials, but now this strategy will be curtailed.


By the end of last year, there were approximately $9 trillion in positions globally, supported by the low-interest yen liquidity. If the US-Japan interest rate differential continues to narrow in the future, this pool of money will shrink, and global asset liquidity will also be suppressed.


As for Japanese bonds, the risks haven't subsided. In the short term, the high-profile government of Shimizu has approved a supplementary budget equivalent to 2.8% of GDP; in the long term, Japan plans to raise defense spending to 3% of GDP and permanently reduce the consumption tax.


These are all big spending moves, putting pressure on Japanese bonds and potentially affecting global financial conditions indirectly.


But I want to say a deeper principle—


Truly powerful assets cannot be swayed by interest rate hikes or cuts in the long term.


They may be affected by some short-term disturbances, but the overall direction won't turn because of a single interest rate hike or cut. Otherwise, there wouldn't be long-term profitable people in the world, only those who lose.


Just look at Nvidia, gold, and Bitcoin—how many rounds of interest rate hikes and cuts, and how many crises they've gone through, their long-term trend is still to rise.


The reason is simple: their value discovery, the consensus is there, the moat is there, and the short-term monetary actions are at most just adding a few bumps on the road, without changing the direction.


The crypto world is the same. Macroeconomic news creates noise, can scare people, and cause market fluctuations, but truly good assets won't collapse because of a single interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, nor will they skyrocket because of a single rate cut.


What we need to focus on is not these short-term variables but the depth of consensus and the hardness of value of the assets themselves.


So, don’t be scared by statements like 'global liquidity is tightening.' Liquidity can affect the rhythm, but it won't change the trend.


If you can see through this layer, you won't be led by macro news in your emotions, nor will you recklessly cut positions amidst fluctuations.


There will always be disturbances; strong things will still follow their own path.$GIGGLE #比特币流动性