The U.S. economic data released this week, which was delayed in several areas, has prompted the market to reassess the Federal Reserve's policy path, leading to an increased expectation for interest rate cuts in January next year.

Although the November non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest level since September 2021; the October non-farm data was significantly revised down, indicating a gradual cooling of the labor market. In terms of inflation, the November CPI overall and core year-on-year fell to 2.7% and 2.6%, both the lowest since March 2021. Following the release of the data, the market's expectation for the probability of an interest rate cut in January rose to 28.8%, with an anticipated annual cut of about 62 basis points.

However, due to the impact of the government shutdown, some CPI items used estimated values, which may have exaggerated the extent of the slowdown in inflation. As the holiday season approaches, there are still clear differences in the statements from Federal Reserve officials regarding the timing and extent of interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, the competition for the nomination of the next Federal Reserve Chair is becoming intense, with Trump stating that he will announce the candidate soon and emphasizing that the new chair must support significant interest rate cuts.