BITCOIN COULD SEE VIOLENT MOVES RIGHT AFTER CHRISTMAS!!!
$23.66 BILLION in BTC options expire Dec 26.
For those who don’t know, that’s MASSIVE.
That’s over 1% of bitcoin’s entire market cap expiring ON A SINGLE DAY.
Let me explain what it means and where BTC might go next:
Here’s what it shows.
– Total options open interest: 268,267 contracts
– Calls: 194,801
– Puts: 73,466
– Put/Call ratio: 0.38
– Notional value expiring: $23,663,778,007
– Max pain: $96,000
That’s enough size to matter for how the market behaves into expiry.
Why this matters?
Options don’t just sit there. Big whales hedge them.
And when there’s heavy positioning around certain strikes, price starts getting pulled toward liquidity.
On this chart, you can literally see the battlefield by strike:
– Big clusters of calls stacked above current price
– Puts heavier down lower, but still smaller vs calls (again: 0.38 put/call)
So into expiry, you often get this annoying behavior:
– Price grinds up → gets rejected near a big call wall
– Price dumps → buyers step in before it gets too far, because there’s size sitting down there too
– Result: chop, fakeouts, and those “random” wicks that nuke both sides
Here’s the level everyone should understand.
Max pain is $96,000.
That’s the price where option buyers (as a group) tend to feel the most pain into settlement.
Does it mean BTC must go to $96k? No.
But when you’ve got $23.66B rolling off on one date, ignoring that number is how you end up donating money on leverage.
What I’m watching into Dec 26:
– If we hover near big strikes: expect pinning + stop runs
– If we break away from the dense clusters: expect bigger candles, because the “gravity” from that positioning gets weaker after expiry
This is why I keep telling you to watch the positioning, not the chart.
Most of the “manipulation” people feel is just big money trading around where the most contracts are sitting.
Btw, i’m not sure if you’re aware but I was the only one to call the exact bitcoin bottom at $16k three years ago and the top at $126k in october.
If you missed my alerts, don’t worry i’ll do it again.
If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.
