One might catch a glimpse of the price chart of KITE/USDT and feel a bit of excitement, even hope, when witnessing alternating price increases. However, behind the shiny facade of green candles, a harsh reality is gradually revealing itself, where numbers do not lie; they tell the story of a battlefield where retail traders are merely fuel. This market once again exposes the cold nature of the big players, who manipulate the flow of liquidity with a chilling sophistication.
The growl of the Downward Orbit: CVD and Real Pressure
Look closely at the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) for derivatives. The existing value is deeply negative, hovering around -17.171 million. This number is not merely an indicator; it is a warning bell indicating that active selling pressure is overwhelming buying power. Even when KITE experiences slight rebounds on the price chart, the derivative CVD remains steadfast in negative territory, implying that each time the price rises, it is not due to real buying power from the longs but possibly due to closing short positions or a price push to create liquidity.
And when looking at the Aggregated Spot Cumulative Volume Delta, the situation is much worse, with a negative figure close to -20.407 million. This tells us that not only in the derivatives market but even in the spot market, the sellers are clearly dominating. When both spot and futures CVD are deep in the red, it is an undeniable sign of a weak market structure, where confidence in the upward trend is being eroded from the roots. The times when KITE slightly rises may only be traps set to lure in inexperienced longs, turning them into potential targets for future liquidations.
Open Interest and Funding Rate: Bait and the price of blind optimism
The Open Interest (OI) of KITE has significantly grown, now reaching 236.368 million. An increase in OI, especially when accompanied by a positive Funding Rate (0.0056), is a familiar formula for destruction. A positive Funding Rate indicates that the longs are paying fees to the shorts to maintain their positions. This means that, although CVD indicators are screaming about selling pressure, the majority of the crowd is still holding onto bullish dreams and willing to pay to keep their long positions.
This is the perfect scenario for market makers. They can maintain a short position, earning funding fees from optimistic long investors, while waiting for the right moment to push prices down. Each increase in OI with a positive funding rate is a potential burden for the market, like adding dry wood to a fire waiting to ignite. Money in the derivatives market does not disappear; it merely shifts from the pockets of those who believe in the obvious truth to those who see through the hidden nature behind the curtain. The blind optimism of the longs, as reflected in this funding rate, is an irresistible bait.
Aggregated Futures Bid & Ask Delta: The Grim Reaper's Scythe
The Aggregated Futures Bid & Ask Delta is currently at -800.112 thousand, a clear indicator of severe imbalance. The bright red bars continue to appear, significantly larger than the green bars, indicating strong selling pressure in the futures market. Whenever a large sell order is matched at the bid price, it drives the price down, creating a domino effect of other sell orders and triggering liquidations. This is not a healthy correction; it is a deliberate crushing, a retreat of buyers realizing there isn't enough liquidity to absorb the selling pressure. The sharp, sudden declines are not the fault of the oracle or network congestion, but the result of market makers exploiting market weaknesses to liquidate accumulated long positions, especially when OI is high and CVD is negative. Each red bar is a reminder of burned accounts, of shattered dreams.
Overall, the picture of KITE/USDT is a cold warning. Prices are fluctuating within a range, creating a false sense of security, but the underlying indicators reveal a weak structure. Deeply negative CVD, positive Funding Rate, high OI, and Bid & Ask Delta heavily leaning towards the sell side all point to one scenario: the big players are accumulating short positions or preparing for a large-scale liquidation, using the liquidity of the longs as leverage. KITE, with these characteristics, becomes a prime example of how the derivatives market can turn into a fierce battleground, where even a small mistake in risk management can lead to a tragic outcome. Once again, the philosophy of "wisdom is not always honesty" echoes, reminding that the stark truth of numbers, no matter how unpleasant, remains the most reliable compass amidst the turbulent sea of the market.
This is not investment advice. Do your own research and make your own investment decisions.
