The realization of losses by Cardano (ADA) investors has surged in December, marking one of the strongest capitulation episodes since 2023. Since the beginning of the month, the total loss value recorded by investors has exceeded 900 million USD (as of Friday).
This development stems from a prolonged wave of pessimistic sentiment following the crash on October 10, causing ADA to wipe out all accumulated gains over the previous 14 months.
As the price plunged to around 0.35 USD, all ADA investors are currently facing an average loss of about 40%. Notably, even the group of new investors who entered the market within the past 365 days are experiencing similar losses.
Under increasing pressure, the majority of investors have been forced to intensify their loss-cutting activities throughout December.
Whales are driving selling pressure as open contracts decrease.
In the spot market, a wave of sell-offs is occurring strongly, mainly from the group of wallets holding 1–10 million ADA. Since the beginning of the month, the total amount of ADA controlled by this large investor group has decreased by about 130 million ADA, indicating significant selling pressure.
In the derivatives market, a cautious sentiment still prevails. The open interest (OI) of ADA futures contracts remains low, at around 657 million USD as of Friday, reflecting that most traders continue to sit on the sidelines after the sharp drop on October 10.
As of the announcement on Saturday, ADA is trading around 0.37 USD, recording a slight recovery of about 4% compared to earlier.
Cardano price forecast: ADA faces resistance at 0.37 USD
ADA has had a notable recovery from the 0.34 USD region and is currently approaching the important resistance area around 0.37 USD. Notably, this price range coincides with the upper band of the downward trend channel and is also reinforced by the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) — a technical resistance that has repeatedly rejected price increases since the sharp drop on October 10.
In a positive scenario, if ADA can decisively break above the downward channel, the next target will be around 0.51 USD. However, before establishing a clear upward trend, the price needs to successfully conquer the 50-day EMA line. Conversely, if selling pressure returns, the 0.34 USD area is likely to continue serving as the nearest support zone.
In terms of momentum, the RSI indicator is still moving below the neutral threshold and is currently testing its own moving average, indicating that buying pressure is not yet overwhelming. Meanwhile, the Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch) is showing signs of recovery from the oversold region, raising expectations for a technical rebound in the short term.