$ANIME
Exciting news! Trump suddenly announced: The U.S. government may face another shutdown at the end of January! After just ending a record 43-day shutdown, could history repeat itself? 一起聊聊！
It's important to know that the federal government, which just relied on a temporary budget to survive in November, only has enough funds to last until January 30, 2026. With just over a month left until the deadline, the two parties are fiercely negotiating the budget—Democrats want to extend subsidies for the Affordable Care Act to protect health insurance for 22 million Americans; Republicans are determined to control spending, and neither side is willing to compromise.
Worse still, the U.S. economy can no longer withstand the turmoil: GDP growth is expected to be only 1.4%, inflation at 3.1%, and unemployment soaring to 4.6%, with clear signs of stagflation. If a shutdown occurs, the consequences could be dire: historically, a 5-week shutdown has caused $11 billion in losses, and the last one led to the paralysis of flights at 40 airports and delays in port cargo.
For the cryptocurrency market and ordinary people, the impact is also imminent: the U.S. dollar index has recorded its largest drop in 9 years, and a shutdown would exacerbate the volatility of U.S. stocks and bonds, which would then affect A-shares and Hong Kong stocks; cross-border trade must be cautious as well, since the last shutdown caused a halt in the approval of import and export licenses, and this time the China-U.S. trade process is very likely to be affected.
The difficulty of compromise between the two parties is significant: the Republicans need 60 votes to advance the bill, and the Democrats are hesitant to concede after being “tricked” last time, but with the midterm elections in 2026 approaching, they might ultimately “hit the brakes” at the last moment.
Behind this political game is a reflection of the U.S. governance incapacity. Do you think the two parties will pull back from the brink? Will a shutdown trigger a global financial shock? Should the cryptocurrency market hedge in advance or seize the opportunity to position itself? You might want to pay attention to Musk’s small probability dog p.u.p.p.i.e.s