Wall Street market psychology expectations
The Bitcoin halving four-year bull-bear cycle is about to change
The bull market will become longer while the bear market will shorten
The previous 4-year cycle has now turned into a 5-year cycle.
In short
Forecast that $BTC will peak in the second quarter of 2026.
CZ has also indicated that the previous cyclicality will become inapplicable
Searching for a sword in a boat may also deviate
The classic 4-year $BTC model is changing— we are entering a new 5-year cycle.
The old formula "halving -> peak one year later" is no longer applicable.
Bitcoin is synchronizing with the macro liquidity cycle (about 5 years).
In the past, the market survived on halvings and pure FOMO (fear of missing out) psychology.
Now, the macroeconomic situation determines the overall tone: U.S. debt, interest rates, the dollar, global liquidity.
Halving is still a factor, but it is no longer the main trigger.
The market has shifted to a slower, macroeconomic-driven cycle.
Why 5 years? Because the Treasury has extended the average debt maturity to 5 years.
Investors will assess risks from a longer-term perspective.
Liquidity circulation time has extended, thus the cycle has slowed down.
Therefore, Bitcoin's peak is now related to macro trends.
The correlation between $BTC and the ISM manufacturing index is increasing.
Now the ISM expansion phase = Bitcoin growth phase.
Local pullbacks will not break this trend.
Monitoring manufacturing indicators is crucial for understanding future trends.
