In terms of liquidity management within the circle, there is an extremely pathological phenomenon: in the early stage, market makers fully plunder the true miners’ consensus value. Over the past few days, I’ve been tracking a few big-address holders that have frequent interactions with <0>$OPG </0>, and I was shocked to find that, based on the current output-and-wear-and-tear mechanism, the meager returns of actual compute power in the first half of the year can be easily arbitraged away by cheap capital injected later. A large number of nodes built by retail users, because they can’t get enough fragmented inference orders, will in practice spend a long time in a state of “loss-making service”—wasting resources without benefit. This is the “liquidity ghost” dilemma that makes me extremely uneasy in the current token design of <0>@OpenGradient </0>. $BTC $ETH
If we break it down from the inference-layer channel, if you take on scattered small tasks, the incentive you receive per job can’t even cover one-third of the electricity cost and hardware depreciation. Only those that have already built monopolistic channels through the beta can take complete inference tasks for large models. So, on the surface, it looks like a decentralized incentive feast, but in reality it distributes inflationary tokens to only a handful of weight holders, while harvesting the sunk compute costs of retail users—leaving them, during long high-vesting waiting periods, to provide early exit liquidity depth for the oligarchs’ initial chips.
The reason I haven’t completely cleared this portion of the observation position is simply because I’m optimistic about the increase in the pricing power of sell-side research brought by zkML. However, if the subsequent real on-chain data cannot prove that the distribution curve is converging toward real retail users, then I’d rather miss a thousand-fold upside than decisively crowd in people to prop up liquidity for this kind of fool’s arbitrage. Understanding the structure of your counterparty is always ten thousand times more important than studying whitepapers.
#OPG