Market Structure Changes and Macro Cycles
The BTC market is undergoing profound structural changes, with the traditional four-year bull and bear cycles potentially being replaced by longer macro liquidity cycles. Wall Street generally expects the bull market cycle to possibly extend to five years, peaking around the second quarter of 2026, but in the short term, it will not be a straightforward upward trend; caution is needed against macro headwinds.
Current On-chain and Market Sentiment
According to CryptoQuant data, BTC has entered a bear market phase, with increased selling pressure from miners, rising exchange reserves, and some long-term holders beginning to waver. Although market panic sentiment persists, some whales are accumulating against the trend, but central bank tightening policies may bring greater downward pressure. Investors are advised to patiently wait for bottom signals and avoid blindly chasing highs.
Technical Aspects and Price Fluctuations
In the past 24 hours, BTC price has fluctuated between 86846.16 and 88882.55, showing an overall oscillating trend. The current price is approximately 88178.71 USDT, close to the main resistance level of 88366.0, with short-term risks needing attention. The support range is at 84408.6 - 86795.5, and if it breaks below support, timely stop-loss measures are necessary.
