After yesterday's violent pullback from $84,450 to $88,000 in a 'bearish exhaustion' market, $BTC has halted in front of the critical technical resistance level, with the bulls and bears once again caught in a standoff in the quiet of the deep night.
On December 21st at 00:02 Beijing time, the Bitcoin price fluctuated around $88,193, with a slight increase of 0.31% over the past 24 hours. Under the seemingly calm surface, a choice of direction is brewing: will it break upwards and start a new round of rebound, or will it be blocked and fall back, confirming a downward continuation?
01 Technical Analysis: The critical 'stress test' is underway
The current price is at an extremely delicate technical node.
Core pressure: Middle Bollinger band and dense moving average area.
The price is currently running just below the middle Bollinger band on the daily chart ($89,547). This position is not only a dividing line for long and short based on Bollinger band techniques but also coincides with the resistance area of the 7-day moving average. The range of $89,500-$90,000 has become the 'touchstone' for the quality of short-term rebounds.
Indicator signal: Seeking truth amidst contradictions.
· RSI(6): Currently at 49.10, in an absolute neutral zone, neither overbought nor oversold, indicating that long and short forces are temporarily balanced, waiting for a directional breakout.
· MACD: A key positive change has occurred! Although DIF and DEA are still negative, the MACD histogram has turned red (57.57), forming the shape of a 'golden cross.' This suggests that the downward momentum is indeed weakening, but whether an upward trend can be established still needs a price breakout to confirm.
In simple terms: The technical side is providing an opportunity for bulls, but it requires them to immediately present 'strength proof'—a breakout above $89,500. Otherwise, any rebound can be seen as a weak pullback.
02 BTC funding situation: Short-term inflows cannot change the medium-term downturn.
The latest fund flow data reveals a more complex internal structure of the market:
Short term (24 hours): The main force quietly replenishes.
· Large and medium orders combined net inflow of 170.8 BTC.
· Funds are mainly concentrated in ultra-short cycles (15-minute and 30-minute levels account for over 77%).
· Interpretation: This indicates that smart money has made a rebound or short-term speculation at the low levels after the crash, driving yesterday's rebound. However, their actions are swift, and their attitude is more like 'catching a rebound' rather than 'long-term investing.'
Medium term (5 days): The shadow has not yet dissipated.
· The net inflow of the main force over the past 5 days is still -3,584.7 BTC.
· Interpretation: This is the most important data! It brutally points out that despite the rebound yesterday, from a medium-term perspective, the main funds are still withdrawing overall. Short-term inflows cannot mask the lack of confidence in the medium term. This casts a huge question mark on the sustainability of the rebound.
03 Can we short now? Strategies and risks.
Direct answer: Currently at this position (around $88,200) to directly short is extremely high risk. However, opportunities to lay out short positions are emerging, and patience is needed to wait for market signals.
Currently, there are two scenarios and strategies for shorting Bitcoin:
1. Conservative short opportunities (recommended position: light).
· Entry signal: Wait for the price to rebound to the $89,300 - $89,800 range (below the upper and middle Bollinger bands), and observe signs of weakening upward momentum and shrinking trading volume.
· Logic: Shorting in the core pressure zone offers a better risk-reward ratio. This is a level that the bulls must break through; if multiple attempts fail, the strength of the bears will significantly increase.
Key risk control: Stop loss must be set above $90,500 (breaking through the upper Bollinger band).
2. Aggressive short opportunities (very high risk, use with caution)
Entry signal: Price breaking below $87,000 (the launch platform of yesterday's rebound), accompanied by increased trading volume.
· Logic: This means that yesterday's 'bad news has been exhausted' rebound has been falsified, and the market will return to a downward trend, looking for new lows.
· Key risk control: Set stop loss above $88,500.
A piece of advice for all traders:
Be alert for 'baiting the bulls': Currently, all rises can only be defined as 'rebound' until an effective breakout above $90,000. Against the backdrop of medium-term fund outflows, be particularly cautious that the rebound is to build a more perfect downward structure.
Clear stop loss: Regardless of long or short, when playing at critical positions, strict stop losses must be set.
Pay attention to linkage: U.S. stocks and global liquidity sentiment remain amplifiers of short-term volatility.
The market is at a typical 'balance beam' moment. The golden cross of MACD is a spark of hope, but the pressure at $89,500 and the outflow of medium-term funds are the cold reality. For shorts, the best opportunity is not to chase now, but to wait for the moment when the bulls 'fall off the balance beam' at a critical moment.
Tonight, the bulls need to make a final push; while the bears need patience and a precise fatal strike. The decisive hand lies between the line of $89,500.
