#美联储2026降息预期
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$币安人生
The first interest rate suspense of the Federal Reserve is at its peak! Is the market going to change direction?
Friends, the first 'interest rate bomb' of the year may explode! Just now, the world's most authoritative interest rate barometer — CME 'Federal Reserve Watch' data has just been released: In January next year, the probability of the Federal Reserve directly cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is fixed at 22.1%! While the probability of staying put and maintaining interest rates is as high as 77.9%.
As soon as this data came out, the market's nerves immediately tightened! Although 'maintaining the status quo' is still a high-probability event, please note that the probability of a rate cut exceeding 20% appearing at the January meeting is itself a strong signal! This indicates that in the eyes of traders and institutions, the dual pressures of cooling inflation and economic concerns have already caused the Federal Reserve's decision-making balance to start to tilt subtly. It is no longer a question of 'whether to cut rates,' but rather a game of 'when to start cutting.'
Looking back at history, any policy shift by the Federal Reserve is enough to stir up huge waves in the global market. This 22.1% probability is like the first domino that has been pushed over, affecting U.S. stocks, bonds, gold, and more directly impacting the liquidity expectations of the cryptocurrency market, such as Bitcoin. Smart money has started to position itself; will you choose to be conservatively cautious or aggressively bet?
Data doesn't lie, but the trend is up to your judgment. Do you think the Federal Reserve will act early, or will it continue to be 'hard on the mouth' until the end? Is the January decision anticipated to be calm, or the eve of a black swan taking off? Share your insights in the comments!