The cryptocurrency market is going through extremely volatile days as it enters the mid-year period of 2026. After a streak of continuous declines from its all-time high, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trying to find a balance point and trade stably above $62,700.
Despite a slight technical recovery after evaporating more than 10% of its value in a week, market sentiment remains weighed down by negative analyses. In particular, concerns have focused on the financial leverage of the large company MicroStrategy and risks known as the "death spiral".
1. MicroStrategy’s Capital Structure: A 15 Billion USD Burden from Preferred Stock
The unique financial model of billionaire Michael Saylor — turning a software company into the world’s largest Bitcoin-holding entity — is facing the most brutal stress-test pressure it has ever seen.
According to the latest analysis report from Zach Pandl, a senior research expert at Grayscale, MicroStrategy’s current capital structure is potentially hiding a serious cash-flow crisis:
Block of preferred stock (Preferred Stock): Achieves an enormous scale of up to 15.5 billion USD.
Dividend payment obligation: The company must cover fixed dividend payments of nearly 1.5 billion USD per year for shareholders holding STRC preferred stock (Stretch).
A drag on capital flows: Grayscale’s expert warns that, in the context of a deep correction in Bitcoin’s price and cash-flow from traditional software business segments not being enough to offset it, MicroStrategy may be forced to periodically sell Bitcoin to raise cash to pay dividends. This action is completely contrary to Michael Saylor’s promise of “buy only and never sell” over the past many years.
2. The “Deadly Vortex” Nature Brewing in the Market
Fear of a liquidation cascade wave originating from reflexivity in MicroStrategy’s debt structure. In theory, this model works like a double-edged sword:
[Bitcoin drops sharply] → [MSTR and STRC stocks lose valuation benchmarks] → [STRC stock loses peg (loses par value)] → [Liquidity pressure rises significantly] → [Forced to sell pledged Bitcoin] → [Bitcoin drops even deeper]
The first crack appeared when STRC shares were at times traded below par value (de-peg), forcing CEO Phong Le to speak up to correct internal decisions and confirm that the company is still using AI technology to optimize capital-structure management and protect STRC’s peg. However, this wobble triggered the defense algorithms of major hedge funds, increasing short positions targeting both Bitcoin and MSTR stock.
3. The Grand Macroscopic Debate: Is Bitcoin “Digital Capital” or Is It Being Overlooked?
Bitcoin’s decline from its all-time high of 126,000 USD down to just below lower support zones has sparked fierce debates among the industry’s leading Web3 macro thinkers.
Cathie Wood’s skeptical view (CEO of ARK Invest): She decided to cut her 2030 Bitcoin price forecast from 1.5 million USD to 1.2 million USD. The reason given is that the rise of stablecoins in new emerging markets ($300 billion in market cap) has happened too quickly, inadvertently stripping away some of the role as a store of value and inflation hedge that analysts once expected from Bitcoin.
Michael Saylor’s rebuttal: In a direct response on CNBC, Saylor affirmed that ARK Invest’s view is fundamentally wrong in how the asset is positioned. He said stablecoins are only “digital finance” — acting like ordinary money circulating in the usual way — while Bitcoin is “digital capital,” similar to real estate or equity stakes in companies. He emphasized: “No wealthy person wants to hold cash or currency instead of owning a capital asset that has scarce characteristics.”
4. Predicting Bitcoin Price Trends: A Scenario for the Coming Days
Current derivatives data reflects a relatively bleak picture in the short term but opens up long-term opportunities:
Pessimistic speculative sentiment: The Polymarket prediction platform (non-centralized) records that there is up to a 71% probability that participants betting on Bitcoin will break below the 65,000 USD level and move into deeper regions in 2026. Data models based on on-chain data from CryptoQuant also identify that the market’s technical support area and realized price are currently in the range of 56,000 USD to 60,000 USD.
Support from major institutions: On the other hand, the sharp declines are seeing very strong passive buying demand. For example, the Binance exchange has just spent 100 million USD to carry out a buy-the-dip round to convert the SAFU insurance fund into Bitcoin, or low-leverage Long orders worth tens of millions of USD from super whales on the Hyperliquid platform.
Short-term conclusion: Bitcoin is currently in a decisive accumulation zone of the cycle. The specter of a “deadly vortex” stemming from MicroStrategy’s strategy may only be an exaggerated psychological story used by the Bears to flush out weak leverage positions. A sideways trend establishing a base within the 58,000 – 64,000 USD range will be the most plausible scenario before the market moves into a new phase of structural formation.
Recommendation: This article is based on the synthesis of financial data from major international institutions and is intended purely for informational purposes and market perspective—absolutely not financial investment advice. Readers need to take full responsibility and research carefully (DYOR) before participating in the market.